The Global Trade Slowdown
The Global Trade Slowdown

Author: Cristina Constantinescu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-21

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1498399134

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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Long-Run Economic Growth
Long-Run Economic Growth

Author: Steven Durlauf

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 3642612113

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One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.

Exports, Inflation, and Growth
Exports, Inflation, and Growth

Author: Thorvaldur Gylfason

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-09-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1451854137

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This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.

Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint
Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint

Author: John McCombie

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-07-27

Total Pages: 646

ISBN-13: 1349231215

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'... a well written book ... covering ... a vast amount of material ... well balanced between the theoretical and applied works. The authors are judicious and fair in providing a balanced treatment of the two alternative theories of growth performance: supply-oriented and demand-oriented. The book will serve as a guideline to researchers and policymakers ... as a textbook for upperdivision undergraduate and graduate courses.'- Kashi Nath Tiwari, Kennesaw State College This is the first book of its kind to argue in a consistent and comprehensive way the idea that a country's growth performance cannot be properly understood without reference to the performance of its tradeable goods sector and the strength of its balance of payments. It puts forward a demand orientated theory of why growth rates differ between countries where the major constraint on demand is the balance of payments. The book is critical of neoclassical growth analysis and provides an alternative theory of growth performance to the supply orientated approach of neoclassical theory. There are theoretical chapters comparing and contrasting neoclassical growth analysis with the new demand orientated approach, and empirical sections which apply the new model to regions and countries, including two case studies of the UK and Australia.

The Atlas of Economic Complexity
The Atlas of Economic Complexity

Author: Ricardo Hausmann

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2014-01-17

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 0262317737

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Maps capture data expressing the economic complexity of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe, offering current economic measures and as well as a guide to achieving prosperity Why do some countries grow and others do not? The authors of The Atlas of Economic Complexity offer readers an explanation based on "Economic Complexity," a measure of a society's productive knowledge. Prosperous societies are those that have the knowledge to make a larger variety of more complex products. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge countries hold and how they can move to accumulate more of it by making more complex products. Through the graphical representation of the "Product Space," the authors are able to identify each country's "adjacent possible," or potential new products, making it easier to find paths to economic diversification and growth. In addition, they argue that a country's economic complexity and its position in the product space are better predictors of economic growth than many other well-known development indicators, including measures of competitiveness, governance, finance, and schooling. Using innovative visualizations, the book locates each country in the product space, provides complexity and growth potential rankings for 128 countries, and offers individual country pages with detailed information about a country's current capabilities and its diversification options. The maps and visualizations included in the Atlas can be used to find more viable paths to greater productive knowledge and prosperity.

The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia
The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia

Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2016-11-18

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 9781542904476

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The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

The Growth Report
The Growth Report

Author: Commission on Growth and Development

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2008-07-23

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 0821374923

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The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.

Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run
Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run

Author: Maddison Angus

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 1998-09-25

Total Pages: 196

ISBN-13: 9264163557

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The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Developing Countries?
Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Developing Countries?

Author: Emilio J. Medina-Smith

Publisher: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13:

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The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) postulates that export growth is one of the determinants of economic growth. This study tests the hypothesis by examining the economy of Costa Rica, using data going back to 1950. It found that although exports had a positive effect on growth, their impact was relatively. It thus challenges some of the empirical literature on ELGH and expresses doubts about using exports as a comprehensive development strategy.

Trade and Poverty
Trade and Poverty

Author: Jeffrey G. Williamson

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2011-01-07

Total Pages: 315

ISBN-13: 0262295180

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How the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps explain the income gap between rich and poor countries today. Today's wide economic gap between the postindustrial countries of the West and the poorer countries of the third world is not new. Fifty years ago, the world economic order—two hundred years in the making—was already characterized by a vast difference in per capita income between rich and poor countries and by the fact that poor countries exported commodities (agricultural or mineral products) while rich countries exported manufactured products. In Trade and Poverty, leading economic historian Jeffrey G. Williamson traces the great divergence between the third world and the West to this nexus of trade, commodity specialization, and poverty. Analyzing the role of specialization, de-industrialization, and commodity price volatility with econometrics and case studies of India, Ottoman Turkey, and Mexico, Williamson demonstrates why the close correlation between trade and poverty emerged. Globalization and the great divergence were causally related, and thus the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps account for the income gap between rich and poor countries today.