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Author: Roger Koppl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2018-02-08
Total Pages: 293
ISBN-13: 1107138469
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRoger Koppl develops a theory of experts and expert failure, and illustrates his theory with wide-ranging examples, including that of state regulation of economic activity.
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
Published: 2010-10-12
Total Pages: 319
ISBN-13: 0771035217
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Author: Tom Nichols
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2017-02-01
Total Pages: 273
ISBN-13: 0190469439
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTechnology and increasing levels of education have exposed people to more information than ever before. These societal gains, however, have also helped fuel a surge in narcissistic and misguided intellectual egalitarianism that has crippled informed debates on any number of issues. Today, everyone knows everything: with only a quick trip through WebMD or Wikipedia, average citizens believe themselves to be on an equal intellectual footing with doctors and diplomats. All voices, even the most ridiculous, demand to be taken with equal seriousness, and any claim to the contrary is dismissed as undemocratic elitism. Tom Nichols' The Death of Expertise shows how this rejection of experts has occurred: the openness of the internet, the emergence of a customer satisfaction model in higher education, and the transformation of the news industry into a 24-hour entertainment machine, among other reasons. Paradoxically, the increasingly democratic dissemination of information, rather than producing an educated public, has instead created an army of ill-informed and angry citizens who denounce intellectual achievement. When ordinary citizens believe that no one knows more than anyone else, democratic institutions themselves are in danger of falling either to populism or to technocracy or, in the worst case, a combination of both. An update to the 2017breakout hit, the paperback edition of The Death of Expertise provides a new foreword to cover the alarming exacerbation of these trends in the aftermath of Donald Trump's election. Judging from events on the ground since it first published, The Death of Expertise issues a warning about the stability and survival of modern democracy in the Information Age that is even more important today.
Author: Daniel P. Dennies
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 2005
Total Pages: 228
ISBN-13: 1615030484
DOWNLOAD EBOOKLearning the proper steps for organizing a failure investigation ensures success. Failure investigations cross company functional boundaries and are an integral component of any design or manufacturing business operation. Well-organized and professionally conducted investigations are essential for solving manufacturing problems and assisting in redesigns. This book outlines a proven systematic approach to failure investigation. It explains the relationship between various failure sources (corrosion, for example) and the organization and conduct of the investigation. It provides a learning platform for engineers from all disciplines: materials, design, manufacturing, quality, and management. The examples in this book focus on the definition of and requirements for a professionally performed failure analysis of a physical object or structure. However, many of the concepts have much greater utility than for investigating the failure of physical objects. For example, the book provides guidance in areas such as learning how to define objectives, negotiating the scope of investigation, examining the physical evidence, and applying general problem-solving techniques.
Author: Franco Ferrari
Publisher: Kluwer Law International B.V.
Published: 2022-04-07
Total Pages: 690
ISBN-13: 9403543248
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn arbitration, evidence provides the basis for almost every decision, be it procedural, jurisdictional, or substantive. However, users from different legal traditions may not share the same understanding as to how an arbitral tribunal ought to proceed in this regard. Therefore, it is important for lawyers to know how to collect, develop, and present evidence in arbitration proceedings, not only from a legal perspective but also from a cultural point of view. It is against this backdrop that the editors have invited a diverse group of distinguished arbitration practitioners and academics to contribute to this matchless Handbook of Evidence in International Commercial Arbitration. Key concepts and issues related to evidence in arbitration covered include the following: the normative framework on evidence in arbitration proceedings; the burden and standard of proof; means of evidence, including documents, experts, and witnesses; questions of admissibility, including issues of privilege and confidentiality; the assessment of evidence and its probative value; court assistance and sanctions. With its systematic analysis of the key concepts of evidence, holistic discussion of the applicable normative framework, cross-cultural perspectives on the taking of evidence in arbitration, and reference to case law from major arbitration hubs, this book will become an undisputed point of reference for academics and practitioners alike. Critical acclaim: “This handbook elegantly captures the range of issues that arises regarding evidence in international arbitration. Bringing together the foremost experts in the field, each contribution offers a thoughtful analysis on these issues and the compilation deserves a prominent spot in every practitioner’s arbitral library.” Chiann Bao, Independent Arbitrator (Arbitration Chambers) and Vice President of the ICC Court of Arbitration “This publication well deserves recognition as a landmark handbook on evidence in international commercial arbitration. It comprehensively discusses the whole evidentiary process from its foundations taking a comparative and harmonizing perspective as well as the burden and standards of proof to the various evidentiary means up to the assessment of evidence. Written by leading academics and practitioners from all over the world, it will be a safe haven for anyone facing discrete evidentiary issues and looking for answers to fundamental or actual questions including as to privileges, confidentiality, virtual hearings or data protection.” Professor Filip De Ly, Chair of the ILA International Commercial Arbitration Committee
Author: California (State).
Publisher:
Published:
Total Pages: 98
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: California (State).
Publisher:
Published:
Total Pages: 44
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher: American Bar Association
Published: 2007
Total Pages: 216
ISBN-13: 9781590318737
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2017-08-29
Total Pages: 368
ISBN-13: 1400888816
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSince its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
