We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
East Asian exchange rates have become a global flashpoint. U.S. policymakers blame artificially low Asian currency values for global imbalances, including America's ballooning current account deficit. The solution, they argue, lies in some combination of greater exchange rate flexibility and the appreciation of Asian currencies against the dollar. Asian officials recognize the need to let their exchange rates rise, but they fear that would hamper growth and cut sharply into the value of their dollar reserves. Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime offers a timely and comprehensive analysis of the resulting debates, drawing on expertise from China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The introduction reviews the issues at stake, sketches a variety of proposed exchange rate regimes, and discusses comparisons between East Asia and the West. Subsequent chapters examine the connection between global financial imbalances and East Asian monetary cooperation, China's potential role in regional coordination, the relationship between monetary and trade integration, and different paths toward regional cooperation. Authoritative yet concise, this is an essential primer on East Asian monetary integration. Contributors include Gongpil Choi (Korean Institute of Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Masahiro Kawai (University of Tokyo, Asian Development Bank), Kwanho Shin (Korea University), Yunjong Wang (SK Institute), Masaru Yoshitomi (RIETI,Tokyo), and Yongding Yu (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences).
The role of the Japanese yen as an international currency is assessed. It is found that the determinants of international-currency use imply some increase for the yen’s use in international finance; however, the implications for the yen’s use in international trade are mixed. It is also shown that, despite Japan’s emergence as the world’s largest net creditor nation, Japan’s capital outflows have not significantly facilitated the yen’s internationalization. Data are presented showing that, although the yen’s use as an international currency has increased, it is still rather modest. Wider use of the yen as a regional currency in Asia has occurred, though a “yen-zone” does not appear to be emerging.
This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.
East Asia is the region of the world that is changing fastest in terms of trade arrangements. Dozens of free-trade agreements are signed every year, turning a complex situation into the East Asian noodle bowl of FTAs. This book addresses the crucial question posed by these new agreements how do they affect business? While many studies have focused on government-to-government issues, this book gets to the heart of the matter, studying what it means for the firms actually doing the trade and investment. I recommend this book to any serious student of trade, particularly those interested in understanding the rapidly evolving landscape in this most dynamic part of the world. Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland The pursuit of more than one hundred Free Trade Agreements in East Asia is quietly producing a fundamental change in the global economic architecture. This path-breaking new volume provides an indispensable guide to the practical effect of such agreements on commercial transactions in the region. It is a must-read for businessmen and policymakers who seek to both understand the impact of FTAs in the real world and expand their contributions to economic growth and development. C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics, US [East Asia] needs to think about appropriate measures to overcome the Asian FTA noodle bowl in the future. In this vein, the study suggests several practical measures including encouraging rationalization and flexibility of rules of origin, upgrading origin administration, improving business participation in FTA consultations, and strengthening institutional support systems for SMEs. . . It is hoped that this study will contribute to strengthening regional trade policies in Asia and compatibilities with global trade rules. Haruhiko Kuroda, President, Asian Development Bank This is a valuable contribution in a crowded field. Kawai and Wignaraja have gone beyond familiar arguments about the relative merits of regionalism and multilateralism to ask businesses what it all means to them. Policymakers should take note. Patrick Low, Chief Economist, WTO For policymakers in the region, the debate is no longer between regionalism and multilateralism. The real question is how we should create the model for regionalism that will become the building blocks to a multilateral trading system and avoid raising costs of doing business from the noodle bowl effect. Therefore the comparative and micro-level research found in this book provides valuable insights on the impact of FTAs on businesses. These insights will be relevant input as policymakers forge ahead in implementing regional FTAs, thinking of ways to amend and improve on them and, most importantly, harmonize or consolidate between existing regional FTAs in East Asia. Mari Pangestu, Minister of Trade, Indonesia The spread of Asia s free trade agreements (FTAs) has sparked an important debate on the impact of such agreements on business activity. This pioneering study uses new evidence from surveys of East Asian exporters including Japan, the People s Republic of China, the Republic of Korea and three ASEAN economies of the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand to shed light on the FTA debate. Critics are concerned that FTAs erode the multilateral trading process and foster an alarming noodle bowl of overlapping regulations and rules of origin requirements which may be costly to business. Asia s Free Trade Agreements makes key recommendations for improving business use of FTA preferences, reducing costs of FTAs and creating a region-wide FTA. This well-researched and documented book will appeal to undergraduate and postgraduate students in international business, international economics, economic development, public administration and public policy. Academics, researchers and members of think-tanks around the world will also benefit from this book as will trad
