This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.
This paper examines the impact of the opening up of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union on Western Europe. The analysis suggests that given reasonable (yet necessarily imprecise) assumptions on the likely developments in the previously centrally planned economies (PCPEs) over the next ten years, West European capital markets are likely to experience only a mild squeeze from their concerted efforts to provide external financing to the East. Most macroeconomic aggregates are likely to suffer shocks significantly smaller than would be expected from a typical business cycle.
This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate-based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987-92 and Greece in 1994-96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.
This book bridges the study of European constitutionalism with the study of 'fiscal federalism' – the subfield of public economics concerned with structuring public finances between different levels of government in federal states. On one axis, this book delves into European Union and Member State constitutional law from all EU Member States in order to investigate and identify the existence of permanent constitutional boundaries that will impinge upon the selection of proposed models for EU fiscal federalism. On the second axis, this book engages the study of fiscal federalism in order to determine which institutional configurations known to that field remain legally and economically implementable within those boundaries. It provides a far-reaching investigation of which models of fiscal federalism are compatible with the constitutional boundaries of the European legal order.
The Asian crisis of 1997-1998 was a major influence on macroeconomic thinking concerning exchange rate regimes, the functioning of international institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, and international contagion of macroeconomic instability from one country to another. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability offers perspectives on these issues from the viewpoints of two Nobel Laureates, an IMF economist, and Asian economists. This book contributes new ideas to the ongoing debate on the role of domestic monetary authorities and international institutions in reducing the likelihood of international financial crises, as well as the problems associated with various exchange rate regimes from the standpoint of macroeconomic stability. Overall, the chapters contained in this volume offer interesting perspectives, which have been stimulated by the recent events in the foreign exchange market. They provide a useful reference for anyone interested in the development of exchange rate regimes, and represent considerable reflection by economists half a century after Bretton Woods.
This paper studies the case of Mexico to examine determinants of banking system fragility. The paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, the paper constructs an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis that began in 1994.
The first phase of transition to a market economy in Central and Eastern Europe was characterized by a sharp output decline. The fall in real GDP exceeded 20% while real industrial production decreased even by 40%. Output Decline in Eastern Europe aims at providing comprehensive, multi-factor explanations for this unique, painful experience. Various hypotheses are analyzed: credit and fiscal policies may have been too tight; the collapse of the CMEA and the USSR came as a shock; domestic producers were neither experienced, nor flexible enough to adjust the output to new patterns of demand. Output Decline in Eastern Europe contains a unique combination of authors from East and West who extensively analyze new data based on country studies. Understanding the causes of recent output decline, the subject matter of this volume may help to assess the prospects for Eastern Europe. The book is addressed to researchers and students as well as interested officials who deal with the transition of formerly centrally planned economies in Central and Eastern Europe.
The demands on monetary and exchange rate regimes in CESEE have evolved, in line with the region’s development. In the 1990s, the immediate challenge was to rein in excessive inflation following transition, and to establish basic monetary order. These objectives have been achieved, owing largely to successful exchange rate–based stabilization. With this accomplished, the focus has shifted to cyclical monetary management, and to appropriately managing monetary conditions during CESEE’s growth and income convergence to the euro area. Flexible exchange rates—and the ensuing capacity of monetary conditions to adapt to the economies’ needs—are likely to remain advantages, especially to extent that CESEE’s GDP and income levels will resume convergence to the euro area. Once this process restarts, tighter monetary conditions will again be needed to limit goods and asset price inflation, and to contain growth imbalances.
Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises, business cycles and exchange rates, supply-side issues in the contractions experienced in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and challenges to European labor markets posed by European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
The collapse of centrally administered socialism in Russia and Eastern Europe resulted in what is commonly referred to as the transition problem: the transformation from a centrally administered socialist economic system to one that is market-based. Economic science has been faced with the challenge of developing an appropriate body of analysis, advice, and direction to help other nations that may be undergoing this process. In this volume, John Marangos adopts a political economy approach that yields alternative models of transition. The volume develops transition models from what Marangos defines as the primary elements of six variables: (1) economic analysis; (2) definitions of the Good Society; (3) speed of transition; (4) political structure; (5) ideological structure; and (6) initial conditions. The models developed include: the shock therapy model, the neoclassical gradualist model of transition, the post Keynesian model, the pluralistic market, the socialist model, and the non-pluralistic market socialist model. After identifying the primary elements of each transition model, Marangos considers the elements of each model with respect to the desirable reforms. An essential element of the transition process is not only to identify the necessary reforms but also a sequence in which the reforms should be introduced. For each transition model developed in this book, a set of primary and secondary elements were provided in conjunction with a sequence of reforms. Analyzing the transition problem from a political economy perspective, Marangos shows that it is possible to have inconsistencies within each transition model and between transition models yet be able to identify the potential for implementation and maintenance of necessary reforms each model recommends. This volume contributes to the understanding of the process of transition, with the objective of identifying an optimal model of transition.
