Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author: Aleksandra Babii

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-05-13

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth.

Nicaragua
Nicaragua

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-01-19

Total Pages: 113

ISBN-13:

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The Nicaraguan economy remained resilient through multiple shocks over the past five years, supported by appropriate policies, substantial pre-crisis buffers (primarily government deposits), and multilaterals support. After a strong rebound in 2021, the economy continued to grow at a steady pace in 2022 and through June 2023 (3.8 percent). Inflation slowed down, the fiscal position turned into a surplus, and record-high remittances, sustained Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and prudent policies supported a continued accumulation of gross international reserves. Banks remain well capitalized, and the loan portfolio is steadily improving with the economic recovery.

On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation
On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation

Author: Hee Soo Kim

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-12-02

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13:

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Central America is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events. The literature estimates the macroeconomic effects of climate events mainly using annual data, which might underestimate the true effects as these extreme events tend to be short-lived and generate government and family support in response. To overcome this limitation, this paper studies Central American countries’ macroeconomic impact of climatic disasters using high-frequency (monthly) data over the period 2000-2019. We identify extreme climate events by defining dummy variables related to storm and flood events reported in the EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and estimate country-specific VAR and panel VAR. The results suggest that a climatic disaster drops monthly economic activity in most countries in the region of around 0.5 to 1 percentage points on impact, with persistent effects on the level of GDP. We show that even as extreme climate events were relatively less severe under our sample period, quantitative effects are similar or larger than previously estimated for the region. In addition, remittances (transfers from family living abroad) increase for most countries in response to a extreme climate event, acting as a shock absorber. The results are robust to controlling for the severity of the climate events, for which we construct a monthly climate index measuring severity of weather indicators by following the spirit of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI).

Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America
Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America

Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-04-26

Total Pages: 123

ISBN-13: 1484326091

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Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil
The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-03-05

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1513571648

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We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.

World Economic Outlook, October 2020
World Economic Outlook, October 2020

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-10-13

Total Pages: 203

ISBN-13: 9781513556055

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The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean
Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author: Mr. Dmitry Gershenson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-08-20

Total Pages: 77

ISBN-13: 1513592238

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Despite some improvement since 2011, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lag behind other regions in terms of financial inclusion. There is no clear evidence that fintech developments have supported greater financial inclusion in LAC, contrary to what has been observed elsewhere in the world. Case studies by national policy experts suggest that barriers to entry in the financial sector, along with a constraining regulatory environment, may have hindered a faster adoption of fintech. However, fintech development seems to have accelerated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and with the support of recent policy initiatives.

A Firm Lower Bound: Characteristics and Impact of Corporate Minimum Taxation
A Firm Lower Bound: Characteristics and Impact of Corporate Minimum Taxation

Author: Aqib Aslam

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-06-08

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513561073

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This paper examines the role of minimum taxes and attempts to quantify their impact on economic activity. Minimum taxes can be effective at shoring up the corporate tax base and enhancing the perceived equity of the tax system, potentially motivating broader taxpayer compliance. Where political and administrative constraints prevent reforms to the standard corporate income tax, a minimum tax can help mitigate base erosion from excessive tax incentives and avoidance. Using a new panel dataset that catalogues changes in minimum tax regimes over time around the world, firm-level analysis suggests that the introduction or reform of a minimum tax is associated with an increase in the average effective tax rate of just over 1.5 percentage points with respect to turnover and of around 10 percent with respect to operating income. Minimum taxes based on modified corporate income lead to the largest increases in effective tax rates, followed by those based on assets and turnover.

Crime and Output: Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America
Crime and Output: Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America

Author: Dmitry Plotnikov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-01-16

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1513519271

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This paper presents a structural model of crime and output. Individuals make an occupational choice between criminal and legal activities. The return to becoming a criminal is endogenously determined in a general equilibrium together with the level of crime and economic activity. I calibrate the model to the Northern Triangle countries and conduct several policy experiments. I find that for a country like Honduras crime reduces GDP by about 3 percent through its negative effect on employment indirectly, in addition to direct costs of crime associated with material losses, which are in line with literature estimates. Also, the model generates a non-linear effect of crime on output and vice versa. On average I find that a one percent increase in output per capita implies about 1⁄2 percent decline in crime, while a decrease of about 5 percent in crime leads to about one percent increase in output per capita. These positive effects are larger if the initial level of crime is larger.

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic
Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Author: Mr.Roberto Garcia-Saltos

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-01-18

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1475567618

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This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.