Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology
Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology

Author: György Bardossy

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-04-17

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 366207138X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.

Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration
Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration

Author: Ian Lerche

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 678

ISBN-13: 9780124441743

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basin evolution and behavior constitutes the second half of this book. Throughout, the author interweaves a discussion of scientific probability, risk, and strategy within the context of improving our ability to assess strategic hydrocarbon resources.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems
Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems

Author: Céline Scheidt

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-06-19

Total Pages: 306

ISBN-13: 1119325838

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Author: Karin Riley

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-11-15

Total Pages: 728

ISBN-13: 1119028094

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Author: Jonathan Rougier

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2013-02-21

Total Pages: 587

ISBN-13: 1107310768

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support
Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support

Author: Ann Bostrom

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-02-10

Total Pages: 339

ISBN-13: 3540711589

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.

Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics
Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics

Author: Kok-Kwang Phoon

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2023-12-11

Total Pages: 521

ISBN-13: 1003801250

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics shows how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can complement each other to enhance decision-making in geotechnical practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to address uncertainties directly. The book helps practitioners acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction with data and numerical modeling. In particular, it provides guidance on the selection of realistic statistics and a cost-effective, accessible method to address different design objectives, and for different problem settings, and illustrates the value of this to decision-making using realistic examples. Bringing together statistical characterization, reliability analysis, reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design for specialist practitioners and the research community.

Landslide Hazard and Risk
Landslide Hazard and Risk

Author: Thomas Glade

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2006-01-04

Total Pages: 824

ISBN-13: 0470012641

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

With the increasing need to take an holistic view of landslide hazard and risk, this book overviews the concept of risk research and addresses the sociological and psychological issues resulting from landslides. Its integrated approach offers understanding and ability for concerned organisations, landowners, land managers, insurance companies and researchers to develop risk management solutions. Global case studies illustrate a variety of integrated approaches, and a concluding section provides specifications and contexts for the next generation of process models.