Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea
Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea

Author: Mr.Li Zeng

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-03-01

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1455220973

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This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.

Forecasting Economic Time Series
Forecasting Economic Time Series

Author: Michael Clements

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1998-10-08

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 9780521634809

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This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

IMF Research Bulletin, June 2011
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2011

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-07

Total Pages: 12

ISBN-13: 1463902913

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June 2011: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the global trade collapse of 2008-09 (by Rudolfs Bems); the research summaries are "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets" (by Ricardo Llaudes, Ferhan Salman, and Mali Chivakul) and "The Missing Link between Dutch Disease, Appreciation, and Growth (by Nicolás E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa). The issue also lists the contents of the June 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.

Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Brain Korea 21 Phase II
Brain Korea 21 Phase II

Author: Somi Seong

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2008-01-31

Total Pages: 277

ISBN-13: 0833044478

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The Brain Korea 21 Program (BK21), which seeks to make Korean research universities globally competitive and to produce more high-quality researchers in Korea, provides funding to graduate students and professors who belong to research groups at top universities. The authors develop quantitative and qualitative models to evaluate how well BK21 is fulfilling its goals and make suggestions for further stimulating Korean university research.

The Making of National Economic Forecasts
The Making of National Economic Forecasts

Author: Lawrence Robert Klein

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2009-01-01

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 1849802165

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In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

New Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence
New Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence

Author: Hiroshi G. Okuno

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2007-07-18

Total Pages: 1213

ISBN-13: 3540733256

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Industrial and Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems, IEA/AIE 2007, held in Kyoto, Japan. Coverage includes text processing, fuzzy system applications, real-world interaction, data mining, machine learning chance discovery and social networks, e-commerce, heuristic search application systems, and other applications.

Energy Research Abstracts
Energy Research Abstracts

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 1430

ISBN-13:

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Semiannual, with semiannual and annual indexes. References to all scientific and technical literature coming from DOE, its laboratories, energy centers, and contractors. Includes all works deriving from DOE, other related government-sponsored information, and foreign nonnuclear information. Arranged under 39 categories, e.g., Biomedical sciences, basic studies; Biomedical sciences, applied studies; Health and safety; and Fusion energy. Entry gives bibliographical information and abstract. Corporate, author, subject, report number indexes.

Long-Run Growth Forecasting
Long-Run Growth Forecasting

Author: Stefan Bergheim

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-03-29

Total Pages: 194

ISBN-13: 354077680X

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This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.