Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.
The objective of this study is to estimate inflation threshold and examine its impact on the inflation-growth nexus in selected African regional economic communities. While a number of empirical studies exist in this area for developing countries, they bundle up countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America which do not have the same inflation experiences. This study therefore focuses on Africa. However, since African regional groupings themselves have different inflation experiences, non-linearity in the relationship between inflation and growth is explored within each grouping separately. The study uses dynamic panel threshold modeling recently suggested by Kremer et al. (2013) which extends the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999) and the cross-sectional threshold model of Caner and Hansen (2004). The results indicate that the estimated inflation threshold is different across the regional economic communities. Nonlinearity in inflation-growth nexus seems to hold in CEMAC, COMESA and SADC while it is questioned in WAEMU and WAMZ. For CEMAC, COMESA and SADC, the findings indicate that inflation above the threshold is harmful to growth. Some correlations are established in this study but further analysis is needed to suggest a policy.
Over the past few decades, the nexus between inflation and economic growth have drawn extensive attention of macroeconomists, policy makers and the central bankers of both developed and developing countries. Much less agreement exists about the precise relationship between inflation and economic performance. This book has reviewed briefly theoretical and empirical findings about the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Moreover, the writer has examined the inflation - investment relationship to assess whether investment is the channel through which inflation and economic growth are related. More specifically, this book has examined their relationship using co-integration and error correction models accompanying with correlation matrix and Granger Causality test for the case of Ethiopia. This analysis should help shed some light on the nexus between inflation and economic growth especially to University students, professionals and policy makers in the area
This book addresses both theoretical developments in and practical applications of econometric techniques to finance-related problems. It includes selected edited outcomes of the International Econometric Conference of Vietnam (ECONVN2018), held at Banking University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on January 15-16, 2018. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. An extremely important part of economics is finances: a financial crisis can bring the whole economy to a standstill and, vice versa, a smart financial policy can dramatically boost economic development. It is therefore crucial to be able to apply mathematical techniques of econometrics to financial problems. Such applications are a growing field, with many interesting results – and an even larger number of challenges and open problems.
Over the last three decades, inflation targeting (IT) has become the most popular monetary policy framework among larger economies. At the same time, its constituting features leave room for different interpretations, translating into various central banks’ institutional set-ups. Against this backdrop, this book investigates the importance of institutional arrangements for policy outcomes. In particular, the book answers the question of whether there are significant differences in IT central banks’ institutional set-ups, and—if yes—whether they influence the ability of monetary authorities to meet their policy goals. The book examines around 70 aspects related to independence, accountability and transparency of 42 IT central banks over the last 30 years. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the quality of the institutional set-ups materially affects monetary policy effectiveness. In fact, a visible improvement of institutional arrangements resulting from pursuing an inflation targeting strategy can be treated as its lasting contribution to central banking. Thus, despite the recent critique of the framework, its prospects continue to be rather favourable. Overall, for the advocates of inflation targeting, the findings of the book can be seen as identifying the sources of IT strengths, while for IT opponents, they may be viewed as indicating which elements of IT institutional set-ups should be kept even if the need to replace this strategy with another regime will, indeed, result in a change. Given the role monetary policy plays within the economy, such knowledge may have significant implications. Therefore, the book will be relevant for different audiences, including scholars and researchers of monetary economics and monetary policy, and will be essential reading for central banks already pursuing an IT strategy or those preparing to adopt one. Importantly, the book includes supplementary indices of proposed institutional arrangements that assess a range of aspects related to IT central bank’s independence, accountability, and transparency. Readers thus have access to the author’s full database, which covers individual indices for all monetary authorities investigated across the given period of analysis.
Austerity, fiscal consolidation, fiscal discipline and fiscal deficit targets have become the buzzwords of contemporary macroeconomic policy. By tracing the history of macroeconomic schools of thought, Maximum Government, Maximum Governance explores the origins, essence, shortcomings and deception of mainstream neoliberal macroeconomics. Arguing that economies are financially constrained, neoliberal macroeconomics dislodged full employment as the target of policy replacing it with a low and stable inflation target. Monetary policy under the control of an independent central bank became the primary instrument to assist free and globalized markets to propel economies towards full employment. However, the global financial crisis of 2008 and rising inequalities of income and wealth in the last decade within and across economies has led to rise of nationalist-populist leaders in many parts of the world. Although neoliberal economics has been put under the scanner by these leaders, their actions seem reactionary and without a coherent understanding of alternative schools of economic thought. An alternative based on sound economic reasoning and institutional realities is required to challenge neoliberal and arbitrary populist policies. Based on an introductory analysis of Modern Money Theory (MMT), this book seeks to present an alternative viewpoint on macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy to address the challenges of economic growth, unemployment and inequality. While adherents of MMT are convinced of its robustness, the challenge is to reframe macroeconomic discourse, which must essentially reject the notion that an economy is financially constrained and instead turn the spotlight on real resource and governance constraints. Please note: Taylor & Francis does not sell or distribute the Hardback in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
The question of economic transformation is an immediate and practical one for the English-speaking Caribbean. In the postindependence period, Caribbean governments seemed blissfully unaware that the inability to transform their economies was leading to serious unemployment problems. The statistics are quite stark. Unemployment rates in the Caribbean range from 6% in the more prosperous states to 23% in the less prosperous ones. This use of economic transformation and job creation continues to be a major challenge in the first decade of the twenty-first Century. This is the subject that is treated with impressive urgency in this volume entitled Economic Transformation and Job Creation: The Caribbean Experience.
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The question of economic transformation is an immediate and practical one for the English-speaking Caribbean. In the postindependence period, Caribbean governments seemed blissfully unaware that the inability to transform their economies was leading to serious unemployment problems. The statistics are quite stark. Unemployment rates in the Caribbean range from 6% in the more prosperous states to 23% in the less prosperous ones. This use of economic transformation and job creation continues to be a major challenge in the first decade of the twenty-first Century. This is the subject that is treated with impressive urgency in this volume entitled Economic Transformation and Job Creation: The Caribbean Experience.
This 2011 edition of OECD's periodic survey of the Swedish economy includes chapters covering consolidating the recovery, monetary policy and the financial system, limiting long-term unemployment and non-participation, and enhancing the ...
