Estimating the Economic Wide Effect of Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Ethiopian Economy
Estimating the Economic Wide Effect of Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Ethiopian Economy

Author: Ashiber Tsegaye

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2020-03-23

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 3346135446

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Academic Paper from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: A, Addis Ababa University, language: English, abstract: This paper examines the economy wide effect of Ethiopian renaissance dam on Ethiopian economy. The model is based on an updated Social Accounting Matrix for 2014/15 that takes into account the structural changes in the economy. Given the additional electricity generation capacity of Ethiopia, the model run a policy simulation in which the additional 6000MW that scheduled to come online near the future form renaissance dam. To analysis this policy option this paper outlined a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium approach and hence uses the change in real GDP, sectors production, investment, external sector, household income and consumption expenditures, and household’s welfare relative to the baseline, as an indicators of the economic wide effects of the renaissance dam. In opting for policy shock, the results of exercise showed that with an increment in power supply from renaissance dam the country can optimize the beneficial impacts on its economy. Specifically the simulation results show a spreading out effect in real GDP, sectors production, real investment, household income and household’s consumption expenditure. Results also showed improvement in the welfare for all the household categories. However; the shift in relative income across the household categories favors high income households. Overall, this paper suggests that Ethiopian economy will enjoy the largest improvement with additional power supply resulting from Ethiopian renaissance dam, therefore; concerned bodies should exerted maximum efforts to finalize the projects on time and resolve the age-long problems of the people so that the economy maintains its tremendous progress.

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery
Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery

Author: Aragie, Emerta

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-12-09

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile

Author: Wossenu Abtew

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-07-26

Total Pages: 179

ISBN-13: 3319970941

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This book is about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam newly being built on the Blue Nile, a transboundary river. Due to rising population and increasing water demand in the Nile basin, major projects raise interest and concern by millions with potential for water conflict. The dam design, reservoir filling policy, operation of the dam, riparian countries response, dam site importance and social impact and economy of the dam are presented in the book.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile Basin
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile Basin

Author: Zeray Yihdego

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-10-31

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1351661566

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will not only be Africa’s largest dam, but it is also essential for future cooperation and development in the Nile River Basin and East African region. This book, after setting out basin-level legal and policy successes and failures of managing and sharing Nile waters, articulates the opportunities and challenges surrounding the GERD through multiple disciplinary lenses. It sets out its possibilities as a basis for a new era of cooperation, its regional and global implications, the benefits of cooperation and coordination in dam filling, and the need for participatory and transparent decision making. By applying law, political science and hydrology to sharing water resources in general and to large-scale dam building, filling and operating in particular, it offers concrete qualitative and quantitative options that are essential to promote cooperation and coordination in utilising and preserving Nile waters. The book incorporates the economic dimension and draws on recent developments including: the signing of a legally binding contract by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to carry out an impact assessment study; the possibility that the GERD might be partially operational very soon, the completion of transmission lines from GERD to Addis Ababa; and the announcement of Sudan to commence construction of transmission lines from GERD to its main cities. The implications of these are assessed and lessons learned for transboundary water cooperation and conflict management.

Effect of the strong economic growth in Ethiopia on its neighborcountry relations
Effect of the strong economic growth in Ethiopia on its neighborcountry relations

Author: Alexander Ritter

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2017-11-07

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13: 3668566232

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Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Politics - Region: Africa, grade: 2,0, University Witten/Herdecke (Wirtschaftswissenschaften), course: Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policies, language: English, abstract: This essay analyses and interprets changes in foreign relations between Ethiopia and its neighbor states dependent on Ethiopia’s strong economic growth in recent years. The author bases his analysis on the rational-actor model of foreign policy analysis. Ethiopia’s economic growth is strongly tied to its investments in agriculture and electricity from hydropower, which not only creates opportunities for the region but also causes some negative externalities. The treat of water deficiency is particularly high for Egypt, which largely depends on the waters of the Nile, with its supply being threatened by the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2017. Water politics with regards to foreign policy in addition to domestic conflict potentials are the most significant political challenges for Ethiopia today. The rational-choice model will help to identify these challenges in greater detail and country-specifically and will help to provide solutions for informed decision-making.

The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis
The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis

Author: Aragie, Emerta

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-12-09

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

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The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.

The effect of exchange rates on economic growth in Ethiopia
The effect of exchange rates on economic growth in Ethiopia

Author: Muluken Nigussie Tessema

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2020-04-08

Total Pages: 81

ISBN-13: 334614514X

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Master's Thesis from the year 2016 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 3.68, Saint Mary's University, language: English, abstract: This study attempts to investigate the effect of exchange rates on economic growth in Ethiopia using annual time series data spanning from 1985/86 to 2014/15. The explanatory variables in this study were real effective exchange rate, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, broad money supply and trade openness. The multilateral real exchange rates is used to measure real exchange rates. Results from Vector Error Correction Model revealed that real effective exchange rates, broad money supply and trade openness have a positive long run effect on economic growth, while government final consumption have a negative long run effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency is contractionary in the long run and neutral in the short- run. As such, the effect of exchange rates on economic growth works through the supply channel. It is the reflection of various economic and policy shocks, mainly a strategy shifts, of the government. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that since the Ethiopian output is dominated by primary agricultural products and it is insensitive for the change in exchange rate. Government intervention is needed to balance the adverse effect of exchange rate movements until the economy well transformed from agricultural lead economy to industrial lead economy and becomes less dependent on imported raw materials.

Dams, Power, and the Politics of Ethiopia's Renaissance
Dams, Power, and the Politics of Ethiopia's Renaissance

Author: Tom Lavers

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2024-10-01

Total Pages: 337

ISBN-13: 0192699067

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This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read on the Oxford Academic platform and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. After more than a decade of construction, Ethiopia is filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a controversial dam with the potential to transform the hydrology and politics of the Nile Basin. The GERD is the culmination of a dam building boom carried out over three decades and a key pillar of the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front's (EPRDF) efforts to bring about an Ethiopian 'Renaissance'. Dams, Power, and the Politics of Ethiopia's Renaissance provides a detailed examination of the domestic and international political dynamics that shaped Ethiopia's dam building, drawing on extensive primary research including more than a hundred interviews with politicians, technocrats, consultants, and donors. The authors reflect on the implications of Ethiopia's dam building for broader debates about the role of the state in late development, the dynamics of twenty-first century dam building, and the political economy of renewable energy transitions. A central argument of the book is that Ethiopia's dam building is symbolic of the successes and failures of the EPRDF's 'developmental state'. On the one hand, this dams' boom enhanced electricity generation capacity, while constituting a key element of the state infrastructure investment that turned Ethiopia into one of the world's fastest growing economies. In contrast, a politically driven decision-making process undermined electricity planning, contributed to an unsustainable debt burden, and, ultimately, failed to provide reliable electricity access to key users. Following the EPRDF's collapse, the subsequent Prosperity Party government has taken steps away from the state-led development model of its predecessor, while labouring towards the final completion of the GERD. Oxford Studies in African Politics and International Relations is a series for scholars and students working on African politics and International Relations and related disciplines. Volumes concentrate on contemporary developments in African political science, political economy, and International Relations, such as electoral politics, democratization, decentralization, gender and political representation, the political impact of natural resources, the dynamics and consequences of conflict, comparative political thought, and the nature of the continent's engagement with the East and West. Comparative and mixed methods work is particularly encouraged. Case studies are welcomed but should demonstrate the broader theoretical and empirical implications of the study and its wider relevance to contemporary debates. The focus of the series is on sub-Saharan Africa, although proposals that explain how the region engages with North Africa and other parts of the world are of interest. Series Editors: Nic Cheeseman (University of Birmingham), Peace Medie (University of Bristol), and Ricardo Soares de Oliveira (University of Oxford)

Economic Development under Climate Change
Economic Development under Climate Change

Author: Amsalu Woldie Yalew

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-02-25

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 3658294132

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Amsalu Woldie Yalew attempts to address the direct and indirect economic effects of climate change, adaptation costs, and adaptation finance in developing countries with emphasis to Ethiopia using a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with a regional module. The results show that the economy-wide effects of climate change are profound. Planned public adaptation that aims to fully neutralize climate change-induced agricultural productivity shocks may help to avert the aggregate effects but with residual effects. The results also indicate that structural change underpins climate-resilient development as it contributes to dampen the adverse consequences of climate change on aggregate GDP and households’ welfare.