Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author: John Williamson

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 608

ISBN-13: 9780881320763

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The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.


Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Author: Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-09-01

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1451853173

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An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.


Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition

Author: Balázs Égert

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 63

ISBN-13:

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This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.


Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia

Author: Omar Al Shehabi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2008-04-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 9781451869705

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The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.


Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana

Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana

Author: Ms.Elena Loukoianova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-07-01

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 1451867190

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The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER's long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana's main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.


Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi

Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-05-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1451852789

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This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.


Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author: Peter Isard

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-12

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13:

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The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.


In Search of Equilibrium

In Search of Equilibrium

Author: Alexander Chudik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-04

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

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This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.