The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.
The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel`s functional form.
A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.
Understand and interpret the global debt capital markets Now in a completely updated and expanded edition, this is a technical guide to the yield curve, a key indicator of the global capital markets and the understanding and accurate prediction of which is critical to all market participants. Being able to accurately and timely predict the shape and direction of the curve permits practitioners to consistently outperform the market. Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve, 2nd Edition describes what the yield curve is, explains what it tells participants, outlines the significance of certain shapes that the curve assumes and, most importantly, demonstrates what factors drive it and how it is modelled and used. Covers the FTP curve, the multi-currency curve, CSA, OIS-Libor and 3-curve models Gets you up to speed on the secured curve Describes application of theoretical versus market curve relative value trading Explains the concept of the risk-free rate Accessible demonstration of curve interpolation best-practice using cubic spline, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson 94 models This advanced text is essential reading for traders, asset managers, bankers and financial analysts, as well as graduate students in banking and finance.
Analytical Finance is a comprehensive introduction to the financial engineering of equity and interest rate instruments for financial markets. Developed from notes from the author’s many years in quantitative risk management and modeling roles, and then for the Financial Engineering course at Mälardalen University, it provides exhaustive coverage of vanilla and exotic mathematical finance applications for trading and risk management, combining rigorous theory with real market application. Coverage includes: • Date arithmetic’s, quote types of interest rate instruments • The interbank market and reference rates, including negative rates• Valuation and modeling of IR instruments; bonds, FRN, FRA, forwards, futures, swaps, CDS, caps/floors and others • Bootstrapping and how to create interest rate curves from prices of traded instruments• Risk measures of IR instruments• Option Adjusted Spread and embedded options• The term structure equation, martingale measures and stochastic processes of interest rates; Vasicek, Ho-Lee, Hull-While, CIR• Numerical models; Black-Derman-Toy and forward induction using Arrow-Debreu prices and Newton–Raphson in 2 dimension• The Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework• Forward measures and general option pricing models• Black log-normal and, normal model for derivatives, market models and managing exotics instruments• Pricing before and after the financial crisis, collateral discounting, multiple curve framework, cheapest-to-deliver curves, CVA, DVA and FVA
This book will give the reader insight into how to model yield curves in our incomplete and imperfect financial markets. An extensive list of yield curve models are shown and discussed. Using actual market instruments, these models are then applied and the different yield curves are compared. It is assumed that the reader has a basic understanding of the financial instruments available in the market. Various issues that have to be taken into account in practice are discussed, like daycount conventions, business-day rules, the credit quality of the instrument and liquidity to name but a few. It is also shown how yield curves can be used to estimate credit spreads and country risk premiums. Creating a yield curve model has some implications in risk management. Specifically - the model, operational, liquidity and basis risks are discussed.
This collection of essays discuss the economic policy problems that confront postcommunist countries. Most chapters focus on liberalization of the exchange rate and trade system, macroeconomic stabilization, and institutional reform.
Aimed at practitioners who need to understand the current fixed income markets and learn the techniques necessary to master the fundamentals, this book provides a thorough but concise description of fixed income markets, looking at the business, products and structures and advanced modeling of interest rate instruments.
This book produces three main results. First, the interest rate risk from on-balance sheet term transformation of banks in Germany exceeds the euro area average and is bound to increase even further. Within Germany, savings banks and cooperative banks are particularly engaged. Second, supervisory interest rate shock scenarios are found to be increasingly detached both from the historic and the forecasted development of interest rates in Germany. This increasingly limits the informative content of mere exposure measures such as the Basel interest rate coefficient when used as risk measures. Third, there is a reasonable theoretical rationale and there is strong empirical evidence for banks' search for yield in interest rate risk, i.e. a negative link between the term spread and the taking of interest rate risk by banks. There is even a threshold of income below which banks' search for yield in interest rate risk surfaces openly.
