Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-01-30

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1475561008

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This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances

Author: Connel Fullenkamp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-03-11

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 1451925255

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Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of poverty and insuring them against income shocks. The findings also yield a number of important caveats and policy considerations, however, that have largely been overlooked. The main challenge for policymakers in countries that receive significant flows of remittances is to design policies that promote remittances and increase their benefits while mitigating adverse side effects. Getting these policy prescriptions correct early on is imperative. Globalization and the aging of developed economy populations will ensure that demand for migrant workers remains robust for years to come. Hence, the volume of remittances likely will continue to grow, and with it, the challenge of unlocking the maximum societal benefit from these transfers.

Determinants of Economic Growth
Determinants of Economic Growth

Author: Robert J. Barro

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 164

ISBN-13: 9780262522540

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Summarizes recent research from hundreds of empirical studies on economic growth across countries that have highlighted the correlation between growth and a variety of variables.

What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?
What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?

Author: Sónia Félix

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-13

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 1513521519

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This paper studies the macroeconomic effect and underlying firm-level transmission channels of a reduction in business entry costs. We provide novel evidence on the response of firms' entry, exit, and employment decisions. To do so, we use as a natural experiment a reform in Portugal that reduced entry time and costs. Using the staggered implementation of the policy across the Portuguese municipalities, we find that the reform increased local entry and employment by, respectively, 25% and 4.8% per year in its first four years of implementation. Moreover, around 60% of the increase in employment came from incumbent firms expanding their size, with most of the rise occurring among the most productive firms. Standard models of firm dynamics, which assume a constant elasticity of substitution, are inconsistent with the expansionary and heterogeneous response across incumbent firms. We show that in a model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups the most productive firms face a lower demand elasticity and expand their employment in response to increased entry.

Beyond Reforms
Beyond Reforms

Author: José Antonio Ocampo

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 9780804752732

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This collection presents the difficult challenges of the new economic era as well as a set of alternative economic policies for managing the open Latin American economies of the early twenty-first century. Ideas that were removed from the reform agenda over the past two decades are seen as critical to the improved economic and social performance that liberalization has so far failed to produce. These ideas include a role for counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies, including restrictions on capital mobility; active productive sector and technological development policies; and the need to pay greater attention not only to social policies, but also to the links between economic policies and social outcomes, in order to guarantee a desirable social performance. This collection sheds new light on issues that were largely overlooked during the reform period, and that must be faced squarely to overcome the deficiencies that Latin America has faced during its phase of liberalization and its dismal economic performance since the Asian crisis.