Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Author: Lionel Halpern

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-11-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 145185479X

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A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.


Exchange Rate Misalignment

Exchange Rate Misalignment

Author: Lawrence E. Hinkle

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 638

ISBN-13: 019521126X

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The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."


Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries

Author: Byung-Yeon Kim

Publisher:

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 9789516868472

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We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator. We find that exchange rates have converged in recent years in five transition countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. However, we also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied are substantially overvalued if real effective exchange rates are used. Published in: Economic Systems vol 29, no 2 (2005), pp. 144-162, ISSN 0939-3625.


Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies

Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies

Author: Mario I. Blejer

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2007-08-23

Total Pages: 501

ISBN-13: 0585313466

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Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies moving from a socialist to a market-based system The focus is on external sector developments, and the topics deal with balance of payments conditions, exchange rate policies and regimes, international competitiveness, international capital flows, trade, and other matters related to the integration of transition economies into the world economy. An understanding of the principles involved and of the experiences of both transition and advanced economies during this process is crucial to ensure its ultimate success. Written by internationally recognized scholars, the chapters cover these issues in a systematic manner. The first section treats current account developments, capital flows, and exchange rate policies in transition countries, the second section deals with specific issues related to international trade, and the final section consists of six specific country experiences. In this final section, a chapter dealing with the Russian Federation discusses the collapse of the ruble in August 1998.


Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Author: Charles Wyplosz

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.


Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Author: Sebastian Edwards

Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13:

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This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.


Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

Author: Miguel A. Kiguel

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-07-27

Total Pages: 411

ISBN-13: 1349255203

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'...the most definitive study of the subject, assembling an all-star cast to address the many outstanding questions and succeeding beyond expectations in combining elegant theory and state of the art econometrics to reach very sensible policy conclusions.' - Mohsin S. Khan, Deputy Director, Research Department, International Monetary Fund ' This book fills an important vacuum in the literature of the economic consequences of parallel markets and should prove of great value to students of economic development and to policy-makers in developing countries as they struggle to reform their exchange rate and trade incentive systems. Here they will find all that they need to know.' - Vittorio Corbo, Professor of Economics, Universidad Catolica de Chile 'A most comprehensive treatment of the relationships between parallel foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policies, both across countries and over time. The book substantially enhances our understanding of how these systems work in practice and will be of great interest to policy-makers, researchers and graduate students of economic policy.' - Samuel M. Wangwe, Professor of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam and Executive Director, Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania This book examines extensive empirical evidence on the macroeconomic implications of parallel exchange rates in developing countries. Eight case-studies from Africa, Latin America, and Turkey provide detailed evidence on the emergence of parallel exchange rates, their impact on macroeconomic performance, and the criteria for successful exchange-rate unification. A chapter on European dual exchange rates summarizes the contrasting experience of industrial countries. An overview chapter lays out the analytical framework, assesses the evidence, and draws policy conclusions.