Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

Author: Nathan D. Grawe

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13: 1421424134

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"The economics of American higher education are driven by one key factor--the availability of students willing to pay tuition--and many related factors that determine what schools they attend. By digging into the data, economist Nathan Grawe has created probability models for predicting college attendance. What he sees are alarming events on the horizon that every college and university needs to understand. Overall, he spots demographic patterns that are tilting the US population toward the Hispanic southwest. Moreover, since 2007, fertility rates have fallen by 12 percent. Higher education analysts recognize the destabilizing potential of these trends. However, existing work fails to adjust headcounts for college attendance probabilities and makes no systematic attempt to distinguish demand by institution type. This book analyzes demand forecasts by institution type and rank, disaggregating by demographic groups. Its findings often contradict the dominant narrative: while many schools face painful contractions, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by 15+ percent. Geographic and racial profiles will shift only slightly--and attendance by Asians, not Hispanics, will grow most. Grawe also use the model to consider possible changes in institutional recruitment strategies and government policies. These "what if" analyses show that even aggressive innovation is unlikely to overcome trends toward larger gaps across racial, family income, and parent education groups. Aimed at administrators and trustees with responsibility for decisions ranging from admissions to student support to tenure practices to facilities construction, this book offers data to inform decision-making--decisions that will determine institutional success in meeting demographic challenges"--

The Agile College
The Agile College

Author: Nathan D. Grawe

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2021-01-12

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 1421440245

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Following Grawe's seminal first book, this volume answers the question: How can a college or university prepare for forecasted demographic disruptions? Demographic changes promise to reshape the market for higher education in the next 15 years. Colleges are already grappling with the consequences of declining family size due to low birth rates brought on by the Great Recession, as well as the continuing shift toward minority student populations. Each institution faces a distinct market context with unique organizational strengths; no one-size-fits-all answer could suffice. In this essential follow-up to Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe explores how proactive institutions are preparing for the resulting challenges that lie ahead. While it isn't possible to reverse the demographic tide, most institutions, he argues persuasively, can mitigate the effects. Drawing on interviews with higher education leaders, Grawe explores successful avenues of response, including • recruitment initiatives • retention programs • revisions to the academic and cocurricular program • institutional growth plans • retrenchment efforts • collaborative action Throughout, Grawe presents readers with examples taken from a range of institutions—small and large, public and private, two-year and four-year, selective and open-access. While an effective response to demographic change must reflect the individual campus context, the cases Grawe analyzes will prompt conversations about the best paths forward. The Agile College also extends projections for higher education demand. Using data from the High School Longitudinal Study, the book updates prior work by incorporating new information on college-going after the Great Recession and pushes forecasts into the mid-2030s. What's more, the analysis expands to examine additional aspects of the higher education market, such as dual enrollment, transfer students, and the role of immigration in college demand.

Projected Enrollment Demand at California's Independent Colleges and Universities. Executive Summary. Report 10-16
Projected Enrollment Demand at California's Independent Colleges and Universities. Executive Summary. Report 10-16

Author: California Postsecondary Education Commission

Publisher:

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 2

ISBN-13:

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The California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC) has recently completed a series of enrollment demand projections for higher education in California. The projections show that enrollment demand at the independent universities will grow to 150,000 students by 2019, an increase of nearly 21,000 from current levels. Although UC (University of California) and CSU (California State University) account for 80% of undergraduate enrollments in the state, growth at independent universities can make a significant contribution to California's need for more university places. The increase in enrollment projected for the independents is comparable to the increase in enrollment demand projected for the UC system. CPEC's enrollment demand projections for the public systems show that if California is to restore access to higher education at the level it was before the recent recession, UC and CSU will be asked to serve 74,000 more students in 2019 than they did in 2008. Studies by the Public Policy Institute of California indicate that university enrollments might need to increase even more than this for California to produce enough university graduates to meet workforce needs as the state's economy recovers. The independent universities could take some enrollment pressure off UC and CSU and help increase degree production in California. Policymakers will need to assess whether the state should take action to encourage more enrollment at the independents. Financial aid can make these institutions an affordable option for many students. [For the related reports, see the following: "Ready for Learning: The Contribution of California's Independent Colleges and Universities in Meeting Undergraduate Demand. Report 10-17" (ED512401); and "Ready or Not, Here They Come: The Complete Series of Undergraduate Enrollment Demand and Capacity Projections, 2009-2019. Report 10-08" (ED510323).].

Providing for Progress
Providing for Progress

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2001-01-01

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13: 9780756716288

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For the past decade, the California Postsecondary Educ. Comm. has remained focused on improving both access to, and the quality of, higher education (HE) in the state for the current and future generations of students. This report presents a series of findings and conclusions will be vital in helping policymakers, educators, and others chart a course for HE into the 21st cent. Chapters: historical precedent, prior projections, new challenges; measuring the wave: California public college and univ. enrollment demand to 2010; stresses and strains: an analysis of enrollment capacity; counting the costs: capital outlay estimates; econ. and fiscal analysis; and an analysis of debt capacity. Charts and tables.