This note provides an overview of the literature on the challenges posed by shallow financial systems for macroeconomic policy implementation. Countries with shallow markets are more likely to choose fixed exchange rates, less likely to use indirect measures as instruments of monetary policy, and to implement effective counter-cyclical fiscal policies. But causation appears to work in both directions, as policy stances can themselves affect financial development. Drawing on recent FSAP reports, the note also shows that shallow financial markets tend to increase foreign exchange, liquidity management, and concentration risks, posing risks for financial stability
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
This note provides an overview of the literature on the challenges posed by shallow financial systems for macroeconomic policy implementation. Countries with shallow markets are more likely to choose fixed exchange rates, less likely to use indirect measures as instruments of monetary policy, and to implement effective counter-cyclical fiscal policies. But causation appears to work in both directions, as policy stances can themselves affect financial development. Drawing on recent FSAP reports, the note also shows that shallow financial markets tend to increase foreign exchange, liquidity management, and concentration risks, posing risks for financial stabilitya.
This note explores how characteristics of financial systems commonly observed in low income countries may shape the approach to the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy. It explores the implications of the ongoing process of financial and institutional development for the conduct of macroprudential policy in these countries. This note is a supplement to the Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy.
This paper aims to widen the lens through which surveillance is conducted in LICs, to better account for the interplay between financial deepening and macro-financial stability as called for in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review. Reflecting the inherent risk-return tradeoffs associated with financial deepening, the paper seeks to shed light on the policy and institutional impediments in LICs that have a bearing on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, macro-financial stability, and growth. The paper focuses attention on the role of enabling policies in facilitating sustainable financial deepening. In framing the discussion, the paper draws on a range of conceptual and analytical tools, empirical analyses, and case studies.
This Selected Issues paper suggests that while the government should continue to work on clearly defining its fiscal policy objectives, at this stage the focus of reforms should be to continue to strengthen the fiscal framework rather than on introducing a formal fiscal rule. A fiscal rule is only as good as the institutions that support it. Moreover, resource rich countries’ experiences with fiscal rules have been mixed as it has proven difficult to formulate rules which are simple, flexible, and robust that can withstand large commodity prices swings. One key question before the government is to define its long-term fiscal policy objectives beyond 2023. This will help determine how it may want to anchor fiscal policy. While a target for the overall balance, as announced in the Fiscal Balance Program, is a reasonable objective for the next 5 years, such a target may not deliver the longer-term fiscal goals of the government. It is also subject to swings in oil prices—it may not be achievable if oil prices decline significantly, but if oil prices were to increase substantially, the target could be achieved even if spending were to increase to such a level that increases future fiscal vulnerabilities. Therefore, it would be better to formulate fiscal policy objectives in terms of the primary non-oil balance rather than the overall balance.
Financial depth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been uneven over the last two decades. The WAEMU countries are lagging behind other regions, particularly the High Growth Non-oil Exporters (HGNOEs) group. We use two complementary methodologies to compare the two groups of countries. In a panel of 16 countries over 1997–2009, we find that the financial gap between the two groups of countries can be explained by institutional factors. In a benchmarking exercise comparing the major economy in the WAEMU (Côte d’Ivoire) with the most structurally similar in the control group (Mozambique), we show that Côte d’Ivoire underperformed relative to Mozambique and to its estimated potential. We then identify policy and institutional asymmetries between the two countries that could explain the gap in performance.
The book gives a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues in Low Financial Development Countries (LFDCs). These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by a predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. The book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines the discussion of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of policy experiences relevant for LFDCs. The book presents the monetary policy instruments they use and assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The book also covers more specific topics, such as the challenges raised by fiscal dominance and by dollarization, the implications of informal labor markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making and the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation.
This Selected Issues paper examines opportunities and challenges for growth in Haiti. Achieving a sustained increase in living standards in Haiti will require deep-seated reforms across a range of areas. Diversifying the export base is needed to cushion the impact of severe shocks that have reduced per capita income and prevented a sustained increase in the capital stock. Integration into global-value chains would also allow Haiti to take advantage of its proximity to the U.S. market and favorable trade preferences to generate employment, spur the creation of human capital, and allow Haiti to begin climbing the value added chain.
