This paper seeks to forecast the characteristics and magnitude of the likely flows from the Middle-East/North Africa (MENA) region to the 27 countries of the European Union (EU-27) through 2030, looking specifically at the political, demographic, and environmental factors that will shape them. It begins with an overview of past and current demographic and migration patterns to set the stage for an analysis of which economic, environmental and political factors are likely to trigger future migration. The conclusion speculates on how policymakers can capitalize on likely demographic developments. --p. 4.
Current demographic trends raise new questions, challenges and controversies. Comparing demographic trends in Europe and the NAME-region (North Africa and the Middle East), this book demonstrates how population change interacts with changing economic landscapes, social distinctions and political realities. A variety of drivers contribute to demographic change in the various regions and countries considered, such as family policies, economic realities, the impact of educational differentials and the attitudes towards marriage. On the macro-level the new trends are restructuring the age composition of populations and are reshaping the life courses of individuals and families. In turn, the impact demographic forces have on the organisation of labour markets, on fiscal policies, on the care of the elderly, on migration flows and on political changes can be quite radical. The volume provides food for thought for those who are looking for a nuanced perspective on the background and future perspectives of demographic developments in Europe, for a discussion of recent demographic and political realities in the NAME countries, and for those who analyse the effects of contrasting demographic regimes on migration flows to and migration politics in Europe.
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The Arab region is often perceived in terms of its negatives rather than its achievements. The cradle of Judaism, Christianity and Islam is nowadays mostly discussed in the context of problems related to rising religious fundamentalism, political instability due in part to the Arab-Israeli conflict or the persistent low status of women. The first Arab Human Development Report listed three deficits impeding human advancement in Arab countries, these were: knowledge acquisition and effective utilization; human rights, freedom and good governance; and woman’s empowerment. The demographic perspective on the Arab region again has tended to focused on the negative, with most studies ranging from uncontrollable immigration to untamable high fertility. Our perspective will first of all examine the differences in terms of demographic paths existing in the 22 countries that make up the Arab world, as well as any convergence occurring at different levels. While the notion that there is a unique and unchanging demographic pattern that is specifically Arab – one of universally high fertility that does not decline – is no longer tenable, the countries in the region are sufficiently similar to each other and distinct from their neighbors to be meaningfully discussed together. This is not to lose sight of the fact that “modernity, cultural openness, the relations between men and women, the effects of economic crisis and of development all vary from one sub-population to another, in North Africa and the Middle East, as elsewhere in the world.” The population projections by the United Nations Population Division essentially assume that fertility will steadily decline in the Arab region as it has elsewhere in the world. In the medium term, despite secular trends in declining fertility and mortality, there will in some respects be even greater demographic heterogeneity in the Arab region than is currently the case. As a result of this heterogeneity, the challenges posed by demographic change in the Arab region are more diverse than the attention to “youth bulges” suggests. It should not distract from the fact that a large number of Arab countries, in the GCC area, the Mashreq and North Africa, will within one generation already enter a phase characterized by progressive population ageing. Because of the rapid future growth in the number of elderly, the overall dependency ratio in the GCC area and Arab North Africa as a whole will, despite falling fertility, not drop much below current levels. This throws an under-appreciated light on the problem of very low participation rates in the labor market. Increasing economic opportunities for today’s youth are not just imperative to meet their own current needs for transitioning to productive and fully “adult” members of society, but also to ensure future sustainability.
One of the most important challenges concerning the future of the European Union is the demographic reproduction of the European population. Decreasing birth-rates and the retirement of the baby boomers will dramatically reduce the labour force in the EU, which will entail not only a lack of manpower but also lower contributions to European social systems. It seems clear that the EU will have to counterbalance this population decrease by immigration in the coming years. Migration Between the Middle East, North Africa and Europe takes this challenge as a point of departure for analysing the MENA region, in particular Morocco, Egypt and Turkey, as a possible source of future migration to the European Union. At the same time, it illustrates the uncertainties implied in such calculations, especially at a time of radical political changes, such as those brought about by the Arab Uprising.
"Written by a group of well-known experts and researchers who have diligently worked, and updated the book since its first edition to include the most important features of State, Polity, and Governance in Middle East and North Africa... This book is equally useful for instructors and students." —Jalil Roshandel, East Carolina University In the more succinct Fifteenth Edition of The Middle East, editor Ellen Lust brings important new coverage to this comprehensive, balanced, and superbly researched text. In clear prose, Lust and her contributors explain the many complex changes taking place across the region. All country profile chapters now address domestic and regional conflict more explicitly and all tables, figures, boxes, and maps have been fully updated with the most recent data and information. This best-selling text not only helps readers comprehend more fully the world around them, but it also enables readers to recognize and formulate policies that can more successfully engage the Middle East. Give your students the SAGE edge! SAGE edge offers a robust online environment featuring an impressive array of free tools and resources for review, study, and further exploration, keeping both instructors and students on the cutting edge of teaching and learning.
The ’Arab Spring’ triggered paradigmatic shifts but, despite these changes, much in the Euro-Mediterranean region remains the same. Utilising ’Logics of Action’, an innovative theoretical framework designed to capture the complexity of political interaction in one of the fastest changing regions in the world, this book discusses developments in the region before and after the Arab Spring that can be characterised by a continuation of the norm. Expert contributors identify patterns of interaction between governmental institutions, economic entrepreneurs, religious groups and other diverse actors that withstood these historical changes and explore why these relationships have proved so robust. Connecting a unique sample of case studies on changing and persistent ’Logics of Action’ within the Euro-Mediterranean space this book provides a pivotal contribution to our understanding of political interaction between North Africa, the Middle East and the European Union. Offering a completely new perspective on the events of the ’Arab Spring’ it identifies something that seems paradoxical at first sight; persistence in times of radical change.
