Effects of State-dependent Forward Guidance, Large-scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-interest-rate Environment

Effects of State-dependent Forward Guidance, Large-scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-interest-rate Environment

Author: Günter Coenen

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9789289939959

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We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming from the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, we focus on the euro area economy and examine, using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, the consequences of the lower bound both for the near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low-real-interest-rate world. Our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can have very substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance. Forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo the distortionary effects due to the lower bound. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, in particular when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward guidance policy via a signalling effect.


Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012

Author: Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy David H Romer

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2012-08-31

Total Pages: 423

ISBN-13: 0815724322

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"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )


U.S. and Euro Area Monetary and Fiscal Interactions During the Pandemic: A Structural Analysis

U.S. and Euro Area Monetary and Fiscal Interactions During the Pandemic: A Structural Analysis

Author: Andrew Hodge

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-11-11

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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This paper employs a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the changes in monetary policy frameworks and the fiscal support in the U.S. and euro area during the pandemic. Moving from a previous target of “below, but close to 2 percent” to a formal symmetric inflation targeting regime in the euro area or from flexible to average inflation targeting in the U.S. is shown to boost output and inflation in both regions. Meanwhile, the fiscal packages approved in the U.S. and the euro area, and a slower withdrawal of fiscal support in the euro area, have a similar impact on output and inflation as changing the monetary policy frameworks . Simultaneously implementing these policies is mutually reinforcing, but insufficient to fully explain the unexpected increase in core inflation during 2021.


Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Author: Mr. Jiaqian Chen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-12-15

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13:

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This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic

Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic

Author: Luigi Paganetto

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-10-05

Total Pages: 328

ISBN-13: 3031103025

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This book focuses on the recovery and new normal in a post-Covid scenario, drawing important lessons from the pandemic and proposing new ideas for sustainable development, endogenous dynamism, and inclusive growth. The book presents different ideas and perspectives about the present and the future, reflecting on four main fields of our economic reality: macroeconomics, governments, technology, and society. It discusses important topics for future economic scenarios, beginning with an estimation of the economic consequences of the absence of an equitable distribution of vaccines. Further topics discussed include the government’s debts sustainability, the probability of an inflation/deflation or of a stagflation scenario, as well as the impact of US and European economic policies on economic growth. The book further investigates the economic costs of the pandemic, which have fallen most heavily on those least able to bear them. It examines governments subsidies, which supported people and firms through wage subsidies, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures, and discusses the question of whether more investment in health care, education, and other public services will still be needed. In a time of immense change and global challenges, this book is a must-read for scholars, researchers, and students of economics, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of economic growth, energy, environment, migration, development, digital transformation, and demography.


Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-16

Total Pages: 109

ISBN-13: 1498324029

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The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.


Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking

Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking

Author: Natalya Martynova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-25

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1513565818

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Traditional theory suggests that more profitable banks should have lower risk-taking incentives. Then why did many profitable banks choose to invest in untested financial instruments before the crisis, realizing significant losses? We attempt to reconcile theory and evidence. In our setup, banks are endowed with a fixed core business. They take risk by levering up to engage in risky ‘side activities’(such as market-based investments) alongside the core business. A more profitable core business allows a bank to borrow more and take side risks on a larger scale, offsetting lower incentives to take risk of given size. Consequently, more profitable banks may have higher risk-taking incentives. The framework is consistent with cross-sectional patterns of bank risk-taking in the run up to the recent financial crisis.


The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Publisher:

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780894991967

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Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.


Negative Interest Rates

Negative Interest Rates

Author: Luís Brandão Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 1513570080

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This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.