Effects of Futures Markets on Agricultural Commodities
Effects of Futures Markets on Agricultural Commodities

Author: Madhoo G. Pavaskar

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 223

ISBN-13: 9788190810913

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In the wake of trade liberalization since the mid 1990s in India, commodity exchanges have been allowed to operate after a long ban of around three and half decades. In the new millennium, national level exchanges have been launched for futures trading, and they have witnessed initial successes in terms of volume and turnover. But, what has been the impact of futures trading on agricultural production and prices? Have futures markets been successful in playing their critical roles of price risk management and price discovery? Can futures markets help the various stakeholders in the agricultural value chain to hedge against the impending risks that will be posed with further agricultural trade liberalization, as India moves further towards WTO regime? Proper research to answer these critical questions has been lacking so far in the Indian context. Resultantly the literature on these aspects of futures trading has, so far, been conspicuous by its absence. The volume titled, Effects of FUTURES MARKETS on Agricultural Commodities , edited by eminent economist Dr. Madhoo Pavaskar, seeks to answer these critical questions, and attempts to bridge the gap existing in the literature. The volume is published by Takshashila Academia of Economic Research (TAER), an independent, non-partisan academic group for undertaking economic, environmental, and social research, set up by Financial Technologies (India) Limited (FTIL). The volume entails a collection of speeches and select papers presented at the seminar on Agro-Commodity Futures in India: Impact on Production and Prices, organized by erstwhile MCX Academia of Economic Research (now TAER). The contributors are leading economists, regulators, policy makers and stakeholders associated with futures markets. In its attempt to informing policy makers, stimulating research thinking, as well as to creating a general awareness of the various economic issues related to the agricultural futures markets, this book is the first of its type. It will be of interest to economists, scholars, academicians, regulators, policy makers, and various market functionaries alike.

Does speculation with agricultural commodity futures cause price bubbles in the event of negative production shocks?
Does speculation with agricultural commodity futures cause price bubbles in the event of negative production shocks?

Author: Tobias Thürer

Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH

Published: 2016-02-05

Total Pages: 222

ISBN-13: 3832538763

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Since the mid 2000s, an increasing financialization of commodity futures markets is taking place. This has fueled an ongoing discussion about the effect of financial investments on the development of commodity prices. Against this background, the trading activities of financial speculators also come to the fore. There is the concern that such speculators can cause irrational overshootings of agricultural commodity prices, e.g. in the event of global production shocks. In such an event the decrease of total supply induces a price surge menacing food security in developing countries. Yet, the question emerges whether speculation aggravates this price increase, eventually inducing a price bubble. The relevance of this concern is reinforced by the fact that due to climate change an increased frequency and severity of global agricultural production shortfalls is at stake. If speculation evokes an additional threat to food security in the event of a production shock, the political agenda should not be confined to focus solely on the adaptation to climate change. Instead, it is then also necessary to address speculative activities on agricultural commodity markets. This book scrutinises whether speculative bubbles can be identified in the event of severe global production shocks. For this, a framework for tracing the transmission of the futures price's development on the spot market is developed. Using annual data from 1979-2012 for maize it is analysed whether production shock related price bubbles occurred.

Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade
Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade

Author: Alexander Sarris

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2006-01-27

Total Pages: 456

ISBN-13: 1781008027

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This book argues that the viability of many observed market and non-market interventions in agricultural products worldwide depends considerably on the underlying behaviour of the relevant commodity markets. Many of these policies have had distortive impacts, resulting in much discussion and controversy in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations.

Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-06-10

Total Pages: 238

ISBN-13: 1441976345

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This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Impact of Futures Trading on Agricultural Commodity Market in India
Impact of Futures Trading on Agricultural Commodity Market in India

Author: Mohammad Irshad VK

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 8

ISBN-13:

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On agricultural commodity futures, there is always been a doubt, expressed by different bodies and experts on the usefulness and suitability of futures contract in developing in the underlying agricultural commodity market, especially in an agricultural based economy like India. Here an attempt is made to revalidate the impact of futures trading on the agricultural commodity market. The daily price information in spot and futures market for a period of seven years ranging from 2007 to 2014 for five major agricultural commodities are estimated using VAR (Vector Auto Regression) and GARCH (1,1) to test the dynamic interrelationship among the variables. The empirical findings significantly show that comparative advantage of the futures market in disseminating information, leading to a significant price discovery and risk management, that can help to successfully develop the underlying commodity market in India.

Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn
Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn

Author: Niklas Humann

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2021-09-22

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 3346496171

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Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This seminar paper reviews the literature on futures markets as well as the recent food crisis and presents an empirical investigation of the influence of (index) speculation on the corn price. My findings are in line with most of the other empirical conclusions that, rather than speculation, factors from the real and monetary economy played a role in the spike of commodity prices. For centuries, corn has been one of the most produced crops in the world, used to feed people, livestock and machines. During the last quarter of the twentieth-century, world food prices declined by more than 50 percent, thereby improving the nourishment of people all over the world. However, this extensive decline also raised calls for protectionist policies, aimed at defending the welfare of commodity producers. Starting in the early 2000s, all classes of commodities have experienced hefty price increases. The price for corn increased by more than 250 percent in roughly three years (2005-2008). The resulting food crisis devastated low-income communities around the globe, with the already large part of their income they spent on food becoming even more substantial, causing hunger and malnutrition. While a variety of explanations for this crisis have been offered, some were quick to blame excessive (index) speculation.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author: Matthias Kalkuhl

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 620

ISBN-13: 3319282018

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This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.