Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan

Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan

Author: Rasmus Fatum

Publisher:

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market is of by far the largest magnitude in the world, despite little or no evidence that it is effective in moving exchange rates. This paper investigates the effectiveness of intervention using recently published Japanese official daily data and an event study methodology. Focusing on daily Japanese and US official intervention operations, we identify separate intervention episodes' and analyze the subsequent effect on the exchange rate. Using the non-parametric sign test and matched-sample test, we find strong evidence that sterilized intervention systemically affects the exchange rate in the short-run (less than one month). This result holds even when intervention is not associated with (simultaneous) interest rate changes, whether or not intervention is secret' (in the sense of no official reports or rumors of intervention reported over the newswires), and against other robustness checks. Large-scale (amounts over $1 billion) intervention, coordinated with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve working in unison, give the highest success rate.


The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets

The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets

Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-07-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451854641

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This paper analyzes the effects of intervention on the level and volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey, two emerging countries that have floating exchange rate regimes. The paper finds mixed evidence on the effectiveness of intervention. In Mexico, foreign exchange sales have a small impact on the exchange rate level and raise short-term volatility, while in Turkey, intervention does not appear to affect the exchange rate level but reduces its shortterm volatility. In both cases, the findings are consistent with officially stated policy objectives, which aim to minimize the effect of intervention on the exchange rate, but cast doubt on claims that intervention is a useful tool for smoothing volatility. Although these findings cannot be generalized to other emerging markets, intervention's apparently limited effectiveness highlights the need for central banks to use their scarce foreign reserves selectively and parsimoniously.


Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Author: Romain Lafarguette

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-12

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1513569406

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This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.


Official Foreign Exchange Intervention

Official Foreign Exchange Intervention

Author: Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-03-02

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 9781589064218

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Despite increasing exchange rate flexibility, central banks in emerging markets still intervene in their foreign exchange markets for several reasons. In doing so, they face many operational questions, including on the degree of transparency and the choice of markets and counterparties. This paper identifies elements of best practice in official foreign exchange intervention, presents survey evidence on intervention practices in developing countries, and assesses the effectiveness of intervention in Mexico and Turkey.


Observations on U.S., Japanese, and German Forex Interventions, 1973-2004

Observations on U.S., Japanese, and German Forex Interventions, 1973-2004

Author: Dhruv Sharma

Publisher: Dhruv Sharma

Published: 2017-11-28

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13: 1973410125

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This book documents, observes, and models the 'trial and error' period following Bretton Woods Collapse of Foreign Exchange Interventions by the G-3 Advanced Economies. The book serves as a narration and analytical reader for Exchange Rate Intervention Economics for this period of 1973 to 2004.


Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market

Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market

Author: Rasmus Fatum

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13:

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"This paper investigates whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective. By integrating the official intervention data with a comprehensive set of newswire reports capturing days on which there is a rumor or speculation of intervention, the paper also attempts to shed some light on through which of the two channels, the signaling channel in a broad sense or the portfolio balance channel, effective Japanese intervention works. The results suggest that Japanese intervention is effective during the first 5 years of the sample and ineffective during the last 3 months of the sample, thereby providing an ex-post rationale for why Japan intervened as well as for why the interventions stopped. Moreover, the results suggest that when Japanese intervention is effective, it works through a portfolio-balance channel. The results do not rule out that effective intervention also works through signaling."--Author's abstract.


Currency Interventions, Fluctuations and Economic Issues

Currency Interventions, Fluctuations and Economic Issues

Author: Lawrence C. Hilbert

Publisher: Nova Publishers

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 178

ISBN-13: 9781604560787

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A currency is a unit of exchange, facilitating the transfer of goods and services. It is one form of money, where money is anything that serves as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a standard of value. A currency zone is a country or region in which a specific currency is the dominant medium of exchange. To facilitate trade between currency zones, there are exchange rates, which are the prices at which currencies (and the goods and services of individual currency zones) can be exchanged against each other. Currencies can be classified as either floating currencies or fixed currencies based on their exchange rate regime. In common usage, currency sometimes refers to only paper money, as in coins and currency, but this is misleading. Coins and paper money are both forms of currency. In most cases, each country has monopoly control over the supply and production of its own currency. Member countries of the European Union's Economic and Monetary Union are a notable exception to this rule, as they have c


Japanese Monetary Policy

Japanese Monetary Policy

Author: Kenneth J. Singleton

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-12-01

Total Pages: 208

ISBN-13: 0226760685

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How has the Bank of Japan (BOJ) helped shape Japan's economic growth during the past two decades? This book comprehensively explores the relations between financial market liberalization and BOJ policies and examines the ways in which these policies promoted economic growth in the 1980s. The authors argue that the structure of Japan's financial markets, particularly restrictions on money-market transactions and the key role of commercial banks in financing corporate investments, allowed the BOJ to influence Japan's economic success. The first two chapters provide the most in-depth English-language discussion of the BOJ's operating procedures and policymaker's views about how BOJ actions affect the Japanese business cycle. Chapter three explores the impact of the BOJ's distinctive window guidance policy on corporate investment, while chapter four looks at how monetary policy affects the term structure of interest rates in Japan. The final two chapters examine the overall effect of monetary policy on real aggregate economic activity. This volume will prove invaluable not only to economists interested in the technical operating procedures of the BOJ, but also to those interested in the Japanese economy and in the operation and outcome of monetary reform in general.


The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention

The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention

Author: Milan Nedeljkovic

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-01-24

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1475571038

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This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.


Conquering the Fear of Freedom

Conquering the Fear of Freedom

Author: Shinji Takagi

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2015-04-16

Total Pages: 333

ISBN-13: 0191024066

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Conquering the Fear of Freedom presents an analytical review of Japanese exchange rate policy from the end of World War II to the present. It examines how authorities, starting with the imposition of draconian controls over all international financial flows, moved toward eliminating virtually all state interference regulating foreign exchange transactions, including official intervention in the foreign exchange market. It describes how policy and institutional frameworks evolved, explains their domestic and international contexts, and assesses the impacts and consequences of policy actions. Following successful exchange rate-based stabilization in the early 1950s, Japan entered the world trading system with an overvalued currency, which helped perpetuate exchange and capital controls. As the culture of administrative control became ingrained, Japan took a decidedly gradualist approach to establishing current and capital account convertibility. The protracted capital account liberalization, coupled with slow domestic financial liberalization, created large swings in the yen's exchange rate when it was floated in the 1970s. Politicization by major trading partners of Japan's large bilateral trade surplus pressured authorities to subordinate domestic stability to external objectives. The ultimate outcome was costly: from the late 1980s, Japan successively experienced asset price inflation, a banking crisis, and economic stagnation. The book concludes by arguing that the shrinking trade surplus against the background of profound structural changes, the rise of China that has diminished the political intensity of any remaining bilateral economic issues, and the world's sympathy over two decades of deflation have given Japan, at least for now, the freedom to use macroeconomic policies for domestic purposes.