China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
Since late 2002 there have been many disputes and discussions around the world on whether or not the Chinese yuan (CNY), or renminbi (RMB), should be revalued. Based on various arguments and discussions, the CNY has been expected to be revalued worldwide, as evidenced by the significant premiums for the CNY non-deliverable forwards in the offshore marketplace. With the CNY revaluation perspectives, hundreds of billions of US dollars have been invested in various types of CNY-related derivatives products. The purpose of this book is not to tell the reader whether the RMB should be revalued, or by how much it should be revalued, as these questions are the work of economists. Instead, as a derivatives specialist with more than te years' experience in the international financial market and with working experience in China in the past few years, the author presents trading of CNY-related derivatives products in the offshore marketplace. The book is organized into five parts. The first part familiarizes readers with the Chinese economy in transition and the Chinese financial market, so that they can make their own judgment as to whether or not the CNY should be revalued. Part II presents major foreign exchange derivatives trading in organized exchanges and the over-the-counter marketplace around the world. Part III reviews what foreign exchange products were involved both before and during the Asian financial crisis, because many of them were used to speculate or hedge against devaluations of the Asian currencies. Part IV studies various CNY-related derivatives products and embedded derivatives products. Finally, Part V examines the possible impacts of these derivatives products on the CNYexchange rate, based on the experiences of other currencies such as the Korean won and the New Taiwan dollar.
This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.
Abstract: This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. The analysis considers the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United States by a fifth, although since other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent. Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent), but Latin America would see its share of the U.S. market decline by around 2 percent (2.5 percentage points). China's gains would come mainly at the expense of other regions of the world.
This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, which we call the "spillover effect". We use recent theory to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. We exploit the variation - afforded by disaggregated trade data - across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. We find robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Our estimates suggest that a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts on average a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit HS product category to third markets by about 1.5-2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
Thanks to deft diplomatic footwork, a US-China confrontation over the renminbi has been avoided. But the US Treasury has merely postponed the publication of its report on foreign currency manipulators, and the dispute may overshadow the G20 meetings in June and November. The 28 short essays in this book provide the best available economic, legal, political, and geopolitical thinking on the causes and likely consequences of the dispute.
