Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2022 addresses financing sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is proving to be extremely costly, both economically and socially and sustainable financing solutions are crucial for an equitable and inclusive recovery.
After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.
Regulatory reforms have long been a focus for Southeast Asian nations, often as a way to improve the business climate and policy frameworks for trade and investment. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has spurred countries around the world to review and update their regulatory policies to respond to the current crisis and prepare for the next one.
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) building is a long journey. For continued relevance and impact, the AEC must remain dynamic while taking into consideration evolving contexts and emerging opportunities and challenges. Notable progress has been made under the two AEC Blueprints (2015 and 2025), particularly in laying down the frameworks for regional economic integration and community building. Nonetheless, gaps remain in implementation, calling for a more streamlined but result-oriented agenda and stronger institutional coordination. Today, the AEC is faced with a markedly different context and unprecedented challenges resulting from a poly-crisis, involving geo-economic fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and climactic changes. Without adjustment, ASEAN’s pillar and sector-centric approach can be expected to fall short in effectively responding to these challenges. As AEC 2025 enters its final quarter, ASEAN needs to recalibrate its priorities. It also increasingly needs to take a whole-of-community approach to integration, as issues and their solutions are spread across multiple sectors. Furthermore, as it develops the AEC Post-2025 agenda, it needs to strike a balance between ambition and pragmatism, and to support substance with institutions and processes.
This report explores each of these conditions along with policy suggestions for fostering them, and discusses the development of multi-country CAT bonds in Asia and the Pacific.
Globalisation and rapid technological change have radically transformed labour markets, affecting the lives and prospects of billions of workers. Those in the informal economy, the vast bulk of the workforce in the Global South, have been bearing the brunt.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Developing Asia has suffered as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Growth, trade, and tourism collapsed in 2020, leading to the region’s first economic contraction in nearly 6 decades. Governments across Asia acted quickly to contain the virus and its economic effects, and signs of bottoming out have now appeared. Inflation remains benign, constrained by depressed demand and declining food prices. A prolonged pandemic is the primary downside risk to the outlook. Persistent or renewed outbreaks and a return to stringent containment could possibly derail the recovery and trigger financial turmoil. Recovery depends on measures to address the health crisis and on continued policy support. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of wellness, both physical and mental. Wellness—the pursuit of holistic health and well-being—is a component of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. This report evaluates the state of wellness in Asia, documents how the wellness economy is a large and growing part of the region’s economy, and discusses how policy makers can promote wellness by creating healthy living environments, encouraging physical activity and healthy diets, and enhancing workplace wellness.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
