Better Decision Making in Complex, Dynamic Tasks

Better Decision Making in Complex, Dynamic Tasks

Author: Hassan Qudrat-Ullah

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-06-16

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 3319079867

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Computer simulation-based education and training is a multi-billion dollar industry. With the increased complexity of organizational decision making, projected demand for computer simulation-based decisional aids is on the rise. The objective of this book is to enhance systematically our understanding of and gain insights into the general process by which human facilitated ILEs are effectively designed and used in improving users’ decision making in dynamic tasks. This book is divided into four major parts. Part I serves as an introduction to the subject of “decision making in dynamic tasks”, its importance and its complexity. Part II provides background material, drawing upon the relevant literature, for the development of an integrated process model on the effectiveness of human facilitated ILEs in improving decision making in dynamic tasks. Part III focuses on the design, development and application of Fish Bank ILE, in laboratory experiments, to gather empirical evidence for the validity of the process model. Finally, part IV presents a comprehensive analysis of the gathered data to provide a powerful basis for understating important phenomena of training with human facilitated simulation-based learning environments, thereby, help to drive critical lessons to be learned. This book provides the reader with both a comprehensive understanding of the phenomena encountered in decision making with human facilitated ILEs and a unique way of studying the effects of these phenomena on people’s ability to make better decision in complex, dynamic tasks. This book is intended to be of use to managers and practitioners, researchers and students of dynamic decision making. The background material of Part II provides a solid base to understand and organize the existing experimental research literature and approaches.


Decision Making in Natural Resource Management

Decision Making in Natural Resource Management

Author: Michael J. Conroy

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2013-03-18

Total Pages: 480

ISBN-13: 0470671742

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This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples. Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement.


Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making

Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making

Author: Herbert Dawid

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-09-15

Total Pages: 518

ISBN-13: 3319391208

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This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.


Fish Population Dynamics, Monitoring, and Management

Fish Population Dynamics, Monitoring, and Management

Author: Ichiro Aoki

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-05-22

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13: 443156621X

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This book explores how we can solve the urgent problem of optimizing the use of variable, uncertain but finite fisheries resources while maintaining sustainability from a marine-ecosystem conservation perspective. It offers readers a broad understanding of the current methods and theory for sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources, and introduces recent findings and technological developments. The book is divided into three parts: Part I discusses fish stock dynamics, and illustrates how ecological processes affecting life cycles and biological interactions in marine environments lead to fish stock variability in space and time in major fish groups; small pelagic fish, demersal fish and large predatory fish. These insights shed light on the mechanisms underlying the variability in fish stocks and form the essential biological basis for fisheries management. Part II addresses the technologies and systems that monitor changes in fisheries resources and marine ecosystems using two approaches: fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data. It also describes acoustic surveys and biological sampling, as well as stock assessment methods. Part III examines management models for effectively assessing the natural variability in fisheries resources. The authors explore ways of determining the allowable catch in response to changes in stock abundance and how to incorporate ecological processes and monitoring procedures into management models. This book offers readers a broad understanding of sustainable exploitation as well as insights into fisheries management for the next generation.


Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

Author: John D. W. Morecroft

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2015-05-27

Total Pages: 507

ISBN-13: 1118994817

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Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a ‘dry run’ for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that: Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry. "Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft’s Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive ‘mini-simulators and microworlds’ to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems." John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management "Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us." Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University


Stock Assessment for Fishery Management

Stock Assessment for Fishery Management

Author: Daniel D. Hoggarth

Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 284

ISBN-13: 9789251055038

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This publication contains guidelines for fish stock assessment and fishery management using the software tools and other outputs developed by the UK Department for International Development's Fisheries Management Science Programme (FMSP) from 1992 to 2004. It includes a CD-ROM with the installation files for each of the four FMSP software tools: LFDA (Length Frequency Data Analysis), CEDA (Catch Effort Data Analysis), YIELD and ParFish (Participatory Fisheries Stock Assessment).


Handbook of Marine Fisheries Conservation and Management

Handbook of Marine Fisheries Conservation and Management

Author: R. Quentin Grafton

Publisher: OUP USA

Published: 2010-01-21

Total Pages: 785

ISBN-13: 0195370287

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This handbook is the most comprehensive and interdisciplinary work on marine conservation and fisheries management ever compiled. Its many valuable contributions offer a way forward to both understanding and resolving the multifaceted problems facing the world's oceans.