Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries?

Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries?

Author: Ablam Estel Apeti

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-04-29

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper investigates the performance of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries (RRC). Using panel data for 57 commodity exporting countries from 1976 to 2021, we find that fiscal rules: (i) reduce the procyclicality of real public expenditures with terms of trade in oil exporting countries, and (ii) improve non-resource primary balances in all RRC, especially during terms of trade upturns. The rules’ design matters. Addressing the procyclicality of public expenditures with terms-of-trade can be achieved with expenditure rules, and, for oil-exporters, revenue rules (althoug limited data on the latter calls for taking the results cautiously). To improve non-resource fiscal balances, debt rules and fiscal balance rules are shown to have a positive impact, especially in oil exporting countries. We further investigate the effect of fiscal rules and other features of the fiscal framework through case studies (for Botswana, Mongolia, and Timor-Leste). These cases highlight that even when fiscal rules are not fully complied with, they lead to some degree of fiscal discipline. The case studies also highlight the importance of the quality of fiscal frameworks: frequent revisions, lack of compliance or low stringency of the rules can significantly hamper their effectiveness.


Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline? New Empirical Evidence from Europe

Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline? New Empirical Evidence from Europe

Author: Ananya Kotia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-07

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484322037

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper studies how fiscal rules interact with the intergovernmental fiscal framework to foster fiscal discipline among European subnational governments. We use political variables describing the fiscal attitudes of the central government as instruments to obtain consistent estimates of the impact of subnational fiscal rules on fiscal balances. The results suggest that the discipline-enhancing effect of fiscal rules is weaker when there are large “vertical fiscal imbalances” that is, large differences in revenue and spending assignments across the different levels of government. These findings imply that separate reforms to reduce excessive vertical fiscal imbalances complement a rules-based fiscal framework that is aimed at fostering fiscal discipline.


A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries

A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries

Author: Mr. Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-11-03

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.


Do Fiscal Rules Cause Fiscal Discipline Over the Electoral Cycle?

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Fiscal Discipline Over the Electoral Cycle?

Author: Kodjovi M. Eklou

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-27

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1513525158

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles in a sample of 67 developing countries over the period 1985–2007. We exploit the geographical pattern in the adoption of fiscal rules to isolate an exogenous source of variation in the adoption of national fiscal rules. Based on a diffusion argument, we use the number of other countries in a given subregion that have fiscal rules in place to predict the probability of having them at the country level. We find that in election years with fiscal rules in place, public consumption is reduced by 1.6 percentage point of GDP as compared to election years without these rules. This impact is equivalent to a reduction by a third of the volatility of public consumption in our sample. Furthermore, the effectiveness of these rules depends on their type, their institutional design, whether they have been in place for a long time and finally on the degree of competitiveness of elections.


Promoting Fiscal Discipline

Promoting Fiscal Discipline

Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-10-18

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 158906609X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Fiscal discipline is essential to improve and sustain economic performance, maintain macroeconomic stability, and reduce vulnerabilities. Discipline is especially important if countries, industrial as well as developing, are to successfully meet the challenges, and reap the benefits, of economic and financial globalization. Lack of fiscal discipline generally stems from the injudicious use of policy discretion. The benefits of discretion are seen in terms of the ability of policymakers to respond to unexpected shocks and in allowing elected political representatives to fulfill their mandates. But discretion can be misused, resulting in persistent deficits and procyclical policies, rising debt levels, and, over time, a loss in policy credibility. The authors first explore the role of discretion in fiscal policy, and the extent, consequences, and causes of procyclicality, particularly in good times. They then examine how a variety of institutional approaches—fiscal rules, fiscal responsibility laws, and fiscal agencies—can help improve fiscal discipline. While each of these approaches can play a useful role, the authors suggest that a strategy combining them is likely to be particularly beneficial. Although such a strategy requires political commitment and effective fiscal management, at the same time, the strategy itself can bolster political commitment by highlighting the restraints on government and raising the costs of failing to respect them.


Second-Generation Fiscal Rules

Second-Generation Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13: 1484350685

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog


Fiscal Policy Rules

Fiscal Policy Rules

Author: Mr.George Kopits

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-07-22

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 9781557757043

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

What are fiscal policy rules? What are the principal benefits and drawbacks associated with various fiscal rules, particularly compared with alternative approaches to fiscal adjustment? Can fiscal rules contribute to long-run sustainability and welfare without sacrificing short-run stabilization? If so, what characteristics of fiscal rules make this contribution most effective? And in what circumstances and contexts, if any should the IMF encourage its member countries to adopt fiscal rules? This paper seeks to identify sensible fiscal policy rules that can succeed, if chosen by a member country, as an alternative to descretionary fiscal rules.


Fiscal Rules at a Glance

Fiscal Rules at a Glance

Author: Mrs.Nina Budina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-11-14

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 1475518021

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper provides country-specific information on fiscal rules in use in 81 countries from 1985 to end-September 2012. It serves as background material and update of the July 2012 Working Paper “Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis—Toward the ‘Next Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset” and is also available in an easy accessible electronic data visualization tool (http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/FiscalRules/map/map.htm.).The dataset covers four types of rules: budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules, and revenue rules, applying to the central or general government or the public sector. It also presents details on various characteristics of rules, such as their legal basis, coverage, escape clauses, as well as key supporting features such as independent monitoring bodies.


Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Author: Francesca G Caselli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-05

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1498300863

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.