A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street

A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street

Author: Andrew W. Lo

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-11-14

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 1400829097

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For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.


Random Walks and Electric Networks

Random Walks and Electric Networks

Author: Peter G. Doyle

Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.

Published: 1984-12-31

Total Pages: 174

ISBN-13: 1614440220

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Probability theory, like much of mathematics, is indebted to physics as a source of problems and intuition for solving these problems. Unfortunately, the level of abstraction of current mathematics often makes it difficult for anyone but an expert to appreciate this fact. Random Walks and electric networks looks at the interplay of physics and mathematics in terms of an example—the relation between elementary electric network theory and random walks —where the mathematics involved is at the college level.


Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method

Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method

Author: Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-09-20

Total Pages: 331

ISBN-13: 1118210522

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This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method The score function method for sensitivity analysis The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB programs. Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.


Random Walks on Infinite Graphs and Groups

Random Walks on Infinite Graphs and Groups

Author: Wolfgang Woess

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2000-02-13

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 0521552923

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The main theme of this book is the interplay between the behaviour of a class of stochastic processes (random walks) and discrete structure theory. The author considers Markov chains whose state space is equipped with the structure of an infinite, locally finite graph, or as a particular case, of a finitely generated group. The transition probabilities are assumed to be adapted to the underlying structure in some way that must be specified precisely in each case. From the probabilistic viewpoint, the question is what impact the particular type of structure has on various aspects of the behaviour of the random walk. Vice-versa, random walks may also be seen as useful tools for classifying, or at least describing the structure of graphs and groups. Links with spectral theory and discrete potential theory are also discussed. This book will be essential reading for all researchers working in stochastic process and related topics.


Random Walk and the Heat Equation

Random Walk and the Heat Equation

Author: Gregory F. Lawler

Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.

Published: 2010-11-22

Total Pages: 170

ISBN-13: 0821848291

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The heat equation can be derived by averaging over a very large number of particles. Traditionally, the resulting PDE is studied as a deterministic equation, an approach that has brought many significant results and a deep understanding of the equation and its solutions. By studying the heat equation and considering the individual random particles, however, one gains further intuition into the problem. While this is now standard for many researchers, this approach is generally not presented at the undergraduate level. In this book, Lawler introduces the heat equations and the closely related notion of harmonic functions from a probabilistic perspective. The theme of the first two chapters of the book is the relationship between random walks and the heat equation. This first chapter discusses the discrete case, random walk and the heat equation on the integer lattice; and the second chapter discusses the continuous case, Brownian motion and the usual heat equation. Relationships are shown between the two. For example, solving the heat equation in the discrete setting becomes a problem of diagonalization of symmetric matrices, which becomes a problem in Fourier series in the continuous case. Random walk and Brownian motion are introduced and developed from first principles. The latter two chapters discuss different topics: martingales and fractal dimension, with the chapters tied together by one example, a random Cantor set. The idea of this book is to merge probabilistic and deterministic approaches to heat flow. It is also intended as a bridge from undergraduate analysis to graduate and research perspectives. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduates, particularly those considering graduate work in mathematics or related areas.


Finite Difference Methods. Theory and Applications

Finite Difference Methods. Theory and Applications

Author: Ivan Dimov

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-01-28

Total Pages: 701

ISBN-13: 3030115399

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This book constitutes the refereed conference proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Finite Difference Methods, FDM 2018, held in Lozenetz, Bulgaria, in June 2018.The 69 revised full papers presented together with 11 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 94 submissions. They deal with many modern and new numerical techniques like splitting techniques, Green’s function method, multigrid methods, and immersed interface method.


Non-homogeneous Random Walks

Non-homogeneous Random Walks

Author: Mikhail Menshikov

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2016-12-22

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 1316867366

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Stochastic systems provide powerful abstract models for a variety of important real-life applications: for example, power supply, traffic flow, data transmission. They (and the real systems they model) are often subject to phase transitions, behaving in one way when a parameter is below a certain critical value, then switching behaviour as soon as that critical value is reached. In a real system, we do not necessarily have control over all the parameter values, so it is important to know how to find critical points and to understand system behaviour near these points. This book is a modern presentation of the 'semimartingale' or 'Lyapunov function' method applied to near-critical stochastic systems, exemplified by non-homogeneous random walks. Applications treat near-critical stochastic systems and range across modern probability theory from stochastic billiards models to interacting particle systems. Spatially non-homogeneous random walks are explored in depth, as they provide prototypical near-critical systems.