Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops methods and models for analysis and interpretation of time series experiments while also addressing recent developments in causal modeling. Unlike other time series texts, it integrates the statistical issues of design, estimation, and interpretation with foundational validity issues. Drawing on examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, this text addresses researchers and graduate students in a wide range of the behavioral, biomedical, and social sciences.
Hailed as a landmark in the development of experimental methods when it appeared in 1975, Design and Analysis of Time-Series Experiments is available again after several years of being out of print. Gene V Glass, Victor L. Willson and John M. Gottman have carried forward the design and analysis of perhaps the most powerful and useful quasi-experimental design identified by their mentors in the classic Campbell & Stanley text Experimental and Quasi-experimental Design for Research (1966). In an era when governments seek to resolve questions of experimental validity by fiat and the label "Scientifically Based Research" is appropriated for only certain privileged experimental designs, nothing could be more appropriate than to bring back the classic text that challenges doctrinaire opinions of proper causal analysis. Glass, Willson & Gottman introduce and illustrate an armamentarium of interrupted time-series experimental designs that offer some of the most powerful tools for discovering and validating causal relationships in social and education policy analysis. Drawing on the ground-breaking statistical analytic tools of Box & Jenkins, the authors extend the comprehensive autoregressive-integrated-moving-averages (ARIMA) model to accommodate significance testing and estimation of the effects of interventions into real world time-series. Designs and full statistical analyses are richly illustrated with actual examples from education, behavioral psychology, and sociology.
Featuring engaging examples from diverse disciplines, this book explains how to use modern approaches to quasi-experimentation to derive credible estimates of treatment effects under the demanding constraints of field settings. Foremost expert Charles S. Reichardt provides an in-depth examination of the design and statistical analysis of pretest-posttest, nonequivalent groups, regression discontinuity, and interrupted time-series designs. He details their relative strengths and weaknesses and offers practical advice about their use. Reichardt compares quasi-experiments to randomized experiments and discusses when and why the former might be a better choice. Modern moethods for elaborating a research design to remove bias from estimates of treatment effects are described, as are tactics for dealing with missing data and noncompliance with treatment assignment. Throughout, mathematical equations are translated into words to enhance accessibility.
This bestselling professional reference has helped over 100,000 engineers and scientists with the success of their experiments. The new edition includes more software examples taken from the three most dominant programs in the field: Minitab, JMP, and SAS. Additional material has also been added in several chapters, including new developments in robust design and factorial designs. New examples and exercises are also presented to illustrate the use of designed experiments in service and transactional organizations. Engineers will be able to apply this information to improve the quality and efficiency of working systems.
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments presents the elements of statistical time series analysis while also addressing recent developments in research design and causal modeling. A distinguishing feature of the book is its integration of design and analysis of time series experiments. Readers learn not only how-to skills but also the underlying rationales for design features and analytical methods. ARIMA algebra, Box-Jenkins-Tiao models and model-building strategies, forecasting, and Box-Tiao impact models are developed in separate chapters. The presentation of the models and model-building assumes only exposure to an introductory statistics course, with more difficult mathematical material relegated to appendices. Separate chapters cover threats to statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity with an emphasis on how these threats arise in time series experiments. Design structures for controlling the threats are presented and illustrated through examples. The chapters on statistical conclusion validity and internal validity introduce Bayesian methods, counterfactual causality, and synthetic control group designs. Building on the earlier time series books by McCleary and McDowall, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments includes recent developments in modeling, and considers design issues in greater detail than does any existing work. Drawing examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, the text is addressed to researchers and graduate students in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical and social sciences. It will appeal to those who want to conduct or interpret time series experiments, as well as to those interested in research designs for causal inference.
This book describes methods for designing and analyzing experiments that are conducted using a computer code, a computer experiment, and, when possible, a physical experiment. Computer experiments continue to increase in popularity as surrogates for and adjuncts to physical experiments. Since the publication of the first edition, there have been many methodological advances and software developments to implement these new methodologies. The computer experiments literature has emphasized the construction of algorithms for various data analysis tasks (design construction, prediction, sensitivity analysis, calibration among others), and the development of web-based repositories of designs for immediate application. While it is written at a level that is accessible to readers with Masters-level training in Statistics, the book is written in sufficient detail to be useful for practitioners and researchers. New to this revised and expanded edition: • An expanded presentation of basic material on computer experiments and Gaussian processes with additional simulations and examples • A new comparison of plug-in prediction methodologies for real-valued simulator output • An enlarged discussion of space-filling designs including Latin Hypercube designs (LHDs), near-orthogonal designs, and nonrectangular regions • A chapter length description of process-based designs for optimization, to improve good overall fit, quantile estimation, and Pareto optimization • A new chapter describing graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis tools • Substantial new material on calibration-based prediction and inference for calibration parameters • Lists of software that can be used to fit models discussed in the book to aid practitioners
'Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments' develops methods and models for analysis and interpretation of time series experiments. Drawing on examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, it addresses researchers and graduate students in a wide range of the behavioral, biomedical and social sciences.
Provides timely applications, modifications, and extensions of experimental designs for a variety of disciplines Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3: Special Designs and Applications continues building upon the philosophical foundations of experimental design by providing important, modern applications of experimental design to the many fields that utilize them. The book also presents optimal and efficient designs for practice and covers key topics in current statistical research. Featuring contributions from leading researchers and academics, the book demonstrates how the presented concepts are used across various fields from genetics and medicinal and pharmaceutical research to manufacturing, engineering, and national security. Each chapter includes an introduction followed by the historical background as well as in-depth procedures that aid in the construction and analysis of the discussed designs. Topical coverage includes: Genetic cross experiments, microarray experiments, and variety trials Clinical trials, group-sequential designs, and adaptive designs Fractional factorial and search, choice, and optimal designs for generalized linear models Computer experiments with applications to homeland security Robust parameter designs and split-plot type response surface designs Analysis of directional data experiments Throughout the book, illustrative and numerical examples utilize SAS®, JMP®, and R software programs to demonstrate the discussed techniques. Related data sets and software applications are available on the book's related FTP site. Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 is an ideal textbook for graduate courses in experimental design and also serves as a practical, hands-on reference for statisticians and researchers across a wide array of subject areas, including biological sciences, engineering, medicine, and business.
Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. It provides example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series to illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. Additionally, the book supplements the classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. Not only does the text discuss new developments, including the prospects for widespread adoption of Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, but it makes optimal use of graphical illustrations in its examples. With forty completed example analyses that demonstrate the implications of model properties, Interrupted Time Series Analysis will be a key inter-disciplinary text in classrooms, workshops, and short-courses for researchers familiar with time series data or cross-sectional regression analysis but limited background in the structure of time series processes and experiments.
The Encyclopedia of RESEARCH METHODS IN CRIMINOLOGY & CRIMINAL JUSTICE The most comprehensive reference work on research designs and methods in criminology and criminal justice This Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice offers a comprehensive survey of research methodologies and statistical techniques that are popular in criminology and criminal justice systems across the globe. With contributions from leading scholars and practitioners in the field, it offers a clear insight into the techniques that are currently in use to answer the pressing questions in criminology and criminal justice. The Encyclopedia contains essential information from a diverse pool of authors about research designs grounded in both qualitative and quantitative approaches. It includes information on popular datasets and leading resources of government statistics. In addition, the contributors cover a wide range of topics such as: the most current research on the link between guns and crime, rational choice theory, and the use of technology like geospatial mapping as a crime reduction tool. This invaluable reference work: Offers a comprehensive survey of international research designs, methods, and statistical techniques Includes contributions from leading figures in the field Contains data on criminology and criminal justice from Cambridge to Chicago Presents information on capital punishment, domestic violence, crime science, and much more Helps us to better understand, explain, and prevent crime Written for undergraduate students, graduate students, and researchers, The Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice is the first reference work of its kind to offer a comprehensive review of this important topic.
