São Tomé & Príncipe remains at high risk of debt distress, although it has received substantial debt relief. The increases in world food and fuel prices have rekindled domestic inflation pressures. Inflation has declined substantially since 2008, but remains at double-digit levels. A tightening of fiscal and monetary policies in 2008 followed by a decline in world food and oil prices helped lower year-over-year inflation from a peak of 37 percent in July 2008 to 11.5 percent in June 2010.
São Tomé & Príncipe remains at high risk of debt distress, although it has received substantial debt relief. The increases in world food and fuel prices have rekindled domestic inflation pressures. Inflation has declined substantially since 2008, but remains at double-digit levels. A tightening of fiscal and monetary policies in 2008 followed by a decline in world food and oil prices helped lower year-over-year inflation from a peak of 37 percent in July 2008 to 11.5 percent in June 2010.
This paper discusses recent economic developments and economic outlook and risks of São Tomé and Príncipe. Although São Tomé and Príncipe’s economic development is constrained by its insularity, fragility, limited resources, and low capacity as a small island state, this African country has made commendable progress toward greater macroeconomic stability. GDP growth has averaged more than 4 percent per year since 2012, faster than many small islands states, but not sufficiently strong and diversified to meaningfully improve economic prospects and reduce poverty significantly. The forthcoming presidential election, with the risk of extra budgetary spending and continued weakness in the banking sector, are the main sources of short-term risks to the economic outlook.
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
The 2008 Article IV Consultation with the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe and sixth review under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility discusses policies and exchange rate arrangement. In recent years, public finances have been supported by large oil signature bonuses, but exploratory drilling for oil has not yet confirmed the existence of commercially extractable reserves. Executive Directors supported the authorities’ intention to reconsider São Tomé and Príncipe’s monetary and exchange arrangements.
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.
The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.
The key objectives of the program are to restore macroeconomic and debt sustainability, address falling reserves, and increase growth. The new government, which took office in late May, has committed to fiscal consolidation and structural reform as key tools for macroeconomic adjustment.
Pan-African banks are expanding rapidly across the continent, creating cross-border networks, and having a systemic presence in the banking sectors of many Sub-Saharan African countries. These banking groups are fostering financial development and economic integration, stimulating competition and efficiency, introducing product innovation and modern management and information systems, and bringing higher skills and expertise to host countries. At the same time, the rise of pan-African banks presents new challenges for regulators and supervisors. As networks expand, new channels for transmission of macro-financial risks and spillovers across home and host countries may emerge. To ensure that the gains from cross border banking are sustained and avoid raising financial stability risks, enhanced cross-border cooperation on regulatory and supervisory oversight is needed, in particular to support effective supervision on a consolidated basis. This paper takes stock of the development of pan-African banking groups; identifies regulatory, supervisory and resolution gaps; and suggests how the IMF can help the authorities address the related challenges.
