Deep Credit Risk - Machine Learning in Python aims at starters and pros alike to enable you to: - Understand the role of liquidity, equity and many other key banking features- Engineer and select features- Predict defaults, payoffs, loss rates and exposures- Predict downturn and crisis outcomes using pre-crisis features- Understand the implications of COVID-19- Apply innovative sampling techniques for model training and validation- Deep-learn from Logit Classifiers to Random Forests and Neural Networks- Do unsupervised Clustering, Principal Components and Bayesian Techniques- Build multi-period models for CECL, IFRS 9 and CCAR- Build credit portfolio correlation models for VaR and Expected Shortfall- Run over 1,500 lines of pandas, statsmodels and scikit-learn Python code- Access real credit data and much more ...
The risk of counterparty default in banking, insurance, institutional, and pension-fund portfolios is an area of ongoing and increasing importance for finance practitioners. It is, unfortunately, a topic with a high degree of technical complexity. Addressing this challenge, this book provides a comprehensive and attainable mathematical and statistical discussion of a broad range of existing default-risk models. Model description and derivation, however, is only part of the story. Through use of exhaustive practical examples and extensive code illustrations in the Python programming language, this work also explicitly shows the reader how these models are implemented. Bringing these complex approaches to life by combining the technical details with actual real-life Python code reduces the burden of model complexity and enhances accessibility to this decidedly specialized field of study. The entire work is also liberally supplemented with model-diagnostic, calibration, and parameter-estimation techniques to assist the quantitative analyst in day-to-day implementation as well as in mitigating model risk. Written by an active and experienced practitioner, it is an invaluable learning resource and reference text for financial-risk practitioners and an excellent source for advanced undergraduate and graduate students seeking to acquire knowledge of the key elements of this discipline.
Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New MaterialThe recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modelin
IFRS 9 and CECL Credit Risk Modelling and Validation covers a hot topic in risk management. Both IFRS 9 and CECL accounting standards require Banks to adopt a new perspective in assessing Expected Credit Losses. The book explores a wide range of models and corresponding validation procedures. The most traditional regression analyses pave the way to more innovative methods like machine learning, survival analysis, and competing risk modelling. Special attention is then devoted to scarce data and low default portfolios. A practical approach inspires the learning journey. In each section the theoretical dissertation is accompanied by Examples and Case Studies worked in R and SAS, the most widely used software packages used by practitioners in Credit Risk Management.
The long-awaited, comprehensive guide to practical credit risk modeling Credit Risk Analytics provides a targeted training guide for risk managers looking to efficiently build or validate in-house models for credit risk management. Combining theory with practice, this book walks you through the fundamentals of credit risk management and shows you how to implement these concepts using the SAS credit risk management program, with helpful code provided. Coverage includes data analysis and preprocessing, credit scoring; PD and LGD estimation and forecasting, low default portfolios, correlation modeling and estimation, validation, implementation of prudential regulation, stress testing of existing modeling concepts, and more, to provide a one-stop tutorial and reference for credit risk analytics. The companion website offers examples of both real and simulated credit portfolio data to help you more easily implement the concepts discussed, and the expert author team provides practical insight on this real-world intersection of finance, statistics, and analytics. SAS is the preferred software for credit risk modeling due to its functionality and ability to process large amounts of data. This book shows you how to exploit the capabilities of this high-powered package to create clean, accurate credit risk management models. Understand the general concepts of credit risk management Validate and stress-test existing models Access working examples based on both real and simulated data Learn useful code for implementing and validating models in SAS Despite the high demand for in-house models, there is little comprehensive training available; practitioners are left to comb through piece-meal resources, executive training courses, and consultancies to cobble together the information they need. This book ends the search by providing a comprehensive, focused resource backed by expert guidance. Credit Risk Analytics is the reference every risk manager needs to streamline the modeling process.
A better development and implementation framework for credit risk scorecards Intelligent Credit Scoring presents a business-oriented process for the development and implementation of risk prediction scorecards. The credit scorecard is a powerful tool for measuring the risk of individual borrowers, gauging overall risk exposure and developing analytically driven, risk-adjusted strategies for existing customers. In the past 10 years, hundreds of banks worldwide have brought the process of developing credit scoring models in-house, while ‘credit scores' have become a frequent topic of conversation in many countries where bureau scores are used broadly. In the United States, the ‘FICO' and ‘Vantage' scores continue to be discussed by borrowers hoping to get a better deal from the banks. While knowledge of the statistical processes around building credit scorecards is common, the business context and intelligence that allows you to build better, more robust, and ultimately more intelligent, scorecards is not. As the follow-up to Credit Risk Scorecards, this updated second edition includes new detailed examples, new real-world stories, new diagrams, deeper discussion on topics including WOE curves, the latest trends that expand scorecard functionality and new in-depth analyses in every chapter. Expanded coverage includes new chapters on defining infrastructure for in-house credit scoring, validation, governance, and Big Data. Black box scorecard development by isolated teams has resulted in statistically valid, but operationally unacceptable models at times. This book shows you how various personas in a financial institution can work together to create more intelligent scorecards, to avoid disasters, and facilitate better decision making. Key items discussed include: Following a clear step by step framework for development, implementation, and beyond Lots of real life tips and hints on how to detect and fix data issues How to realise bigger ROI from credit scoring using internal resources Explore new trends and advances to get more out of the scorecard Credit scoring is now a very common tool used by banks, Telcos, and others around the world for loan origination, decisioning, credit limit management, collections management, cross selling, and many other decisions. Intelligent Credit Scoring helps you organise resources, streamline processes, and build more intelligent scorecards that will help achieve better results.
This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar "black box" mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of the actual long-horizon perils faced by real-world investors subject to the vagaries of financial and military history. These risks have names--inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation--and any useful discussion of portfolio design of necessity incorporates their probabilities, consequences, and costs of mitigation ... This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within income and all-equity portfolios. This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within which to think more clearly about risk. Note: the entire Investing for Adults series is not for beginners.
Financial risk management is quickly evolving with the help of artificial intelligence. With this practical book, developers, programmers, engineers, financial analysts, risk analysts, and quantitative and algorithmic analysts will examine Python-based machine learning and deep learning models for assessing financial risk. Building hands-on AI-based financial modeling skills, you'll learn how to replace traditional financial risk models with ML models. Author Abdullah Karasan helps you explore the theory behind financial risk modeling before diving into practical ways of employing ML models in modeling financial risk using Python. With this book, you will: Review classical time series applications and compare them with deep learning models Explore volatility modeling to measure degrees of risk, using support vector regression, neural networks, and deep learning Improve market risk models (VaR and ES) using ML techniques and including liquidity dimension Develop a credit risk analysis using clustering and Bayesian approaches Capture different aspects of liquidity risk with a Gaussian mixture model and Copula model Use machine learning models for fraud detection Predict stock price crash and identify its determinants using machine learning models
Recent advances in digital technology and big data have allowed FinTech (financial technology) lending to emerge as a potentially promising solution to reduce the cost of credit and increase financial inclusion. However, machine learning (ML) methods that lie at the heart of FinTech credit have remained largely a black box for the nontechnical audience. This paper contributes to the literature by discussing potential strengths and weaknesses of ML-based credit assessment through (1) presenting core ideas and the most common techniques in ML for the nontechnical audience; and (2) discussing the fundamental challenges in credit risk analysis. FinTech credit has the potential to enhance financial inclusion and outperform traditional credit scoring by (1) leveraging nontraditional data sources to improve the assessment of the borrower’s track record; (2) appraising collateral value; (3) forecasting income prospects; and (4) predicting changes in general conditions. However, because of the central role of data in ML-based analysis, data relevance should be ensured, especially in situations when a deep structural change occurs, when borrowers could counterfeit certain indicators, and when agency problems arising from information asymmetry could not be resolved. To avoid digital financial exclusion and redlining, variables that trigger discrimination should not be used to assess credit rating.
