Philosophical Lectures on Probability
Philosophical Lectures on Probability

Author: Bruno de Finetti

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-05-20

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 1402082010

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Bruno de Finetti (1906–1985) is the founder of the subjective interpretation of probability, together with the British philosopher Frank Plumpton Ramsey. His related notion of “exchangeability” revolutionized the statistical methodology. This book (based on a course held in 1979) explains in a language accessible also to non-mathematicians the fundamental tenets and implications of subjectivism, according to which the probability of any well specified fact F refers to the degree of belief actually held by someone, on the ground of her whole knowledge, on the truth of the assertion that F obtains.

Uncertainty
Uncertainty

Author: Millett Granger Morgan

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1990

Total Pages: 354

ISBN-13: 9780521427449

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A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.

Decision Aids for Selection Problems
Decision Aids for Selection Problems

Author: David L. Olson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 206

ISBN-13: 1461239826

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One of the most important tasks faced by decision-makers in business and government is that of selection. Selection problems are challenging in that they require the balancing of multiple, often conflicting, criteria. In recent years, a number of interesting decision aids have become available to assist in such decisions. The aim of this book is to provide a comparative survey of many of the decision aids currently available. The first chapters present general ideas which underpin the methodologies used to design these aids. Subsequent chapters then focus on specific decision aids and demonstrate some of the software which implement these ideas. A final chapter provides a comparative analysis of their strengths and weaknesses.

Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Decisions with Multiple Objectives

Author: Ralph L. Keeney

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1993-07

Total Pages: 596

ISBN-13: 9780521438834

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This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.

Decision, Probability and Utility
Decision, Probability and Utility

Author: Peter Gärdenfors

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1988-04-29

Total Pages: 464

ISBN-13: 9780521336581

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Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Decision Theory and Decision Behaviour
Decision Theory and Decision Behaviour

Author: A. Rapoport

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1998-01-27

Total Pages: 484

ISBN-13: 0230377769

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The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.