Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre
Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre

Author: Ignacio Vélez Pareja

Publisher: Editorial Norma

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 474

ISBN-13: 9789580474418

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El proceso de decisión - Decisiones bajo certeza : el valor del dinero en el tiempo - Decisiones bajo incertidumbre - Una aproximación a los métodos de pronóstico - Actitudes hacia el riesgo - Análisis de sensibilidad - Análisis de inversiones bajo riesgo : simulación - Arboles de decisión - Análisis de portafolio - Opciones reales.

Decisions Under Uncertainty (Decisiones Bajo Incertidumbre).
Decisions Under Uncertainty (Decisiones Bajo Incertidumbre).

Author: Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13:

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This is a course material from the book Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. The book is originally in Spanish and is untitled as Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre. The level of the book is basic. We use very few mathematics and it is expected to be used by managers.In this third chapter we deal with the idea of uncertainty (not having a probability distribution assigned to the events). We use the basic ideas of game theory to introduce the reader into the strategies when dealing with uncertainty. We illustrate the different approaches in game theory: minimax, maxmax, minimum regret, Laplace method, etc. We also present a simple method to estimate the probability of an outcome and one method to estimate a subjective probability distribution.

The Decision Process (El Proceso De Decision).
The Decision Process (El Proceso De Decision).

Author: Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This is a course material from the book Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. The book is originally in Spanish and is untitled as Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre. The level of the book is basic. We use very few mathematics and it is expected to be used by managers. This Chapter 1 deals with the decision process including some psycohological aspects. In the chapter we study the decision problem, including the sequential approach to decision making.

Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty
Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty

Author: Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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This is a teaching material (slides) accompanying the book in Spanish Decisiones Empresariales bajo Riesgo e Incertidumbre (Managerial Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty). It shows the general content of the book.

Análisis De Inversiones Bajo Riesgo
Análisis De Inversiones Bajo Riesgo

Author: Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13:

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This is a course material from the book Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. The book is originally in Spanish and is untitled as Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre. The level of the book is basic. We use very few mathematics and it is expected to be used by managers.In this seventh chapter we introduce the reader to the simulation tools. First we use very simple examples and finally we isllustrate the results of a complex example. We discuss the proper discount rate to use when we introduce explicitly the risk in the analysis. We use intensively the spreadsheet.

Risk Attitudes (Actitudes Hacia El Riesgo).
Risk Attitudes (Actitudes Hacia El Riesgo).

Author: Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13:

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This is a course material from the book Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. The book is originally in Spanish and is untitled as Decisiones empresariales bajo riesgo e incertidumbre. The level of the book is basic. We use very few mathematics and it is expected to be used by managers.In this fifth chapter we deal with the attitudes toward risk. We present the classical cardinal utility theory and illustrate the three well know cases of attitudes toward risk: averse toward risk, indifferent toward risk and propense toward risk. We also present the concept of certainty equivalent. We mention the limitations of the cardinal utility theory. We include a short reference to the prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky. We illustrate the concept of risk aversion with a real life lottery example.