Dairy Farm Growth and the Welfare Impacts of a Growth-based Production Quota on Different Farm Size Groups

Dairy Farm Growth and the Welfare Impacts of a Growth-based Production Quota on Different Farm Size Groups

Author: Devin Lee Brand

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Low milk prices have led to divisive discussions of production controls as a potential solution among dairy farmers and industry groups. A growth-based production quota is one idea that has gained some support among farmers. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the potential impacts of a growth-based production quota on different dairy farm size groups. To understand if small or large farms are growing faster, the relationship between a dairy farm's initial size and their growth rate is analyzed. I use county-level information on the number of dairy farms and milk cows from the USDA's Census of Agriculture. A statistically significant and positive relationship is found to exist between initial farm size and the growth rate in farm size over the past twenty years, which suggests that the larger a farm is, the faster they are growing their farm size and therefore milk production. Additional data from the USDA ARMS provides supporting evidence that larger dairy farms are growing at faster rates than smaller dairy farms in both 2000 and 2016. However, the difference in the growth rate was smaller in 2016 than in 2000. An equilibrium displacement model (EDM) is developed to estimate the impacts of a growth-based production quota. I consider scenarios where the production quotas range from requiring a 2 percent decrease in milk production to allowing for a 2 percent increase in milk production on each farm. Farms of all sizes are found to benefit in terms of producer welfare under all scenarios. Small farms benefit slightly more because they have smaller growth rates, but the difference between farm size groups is very small. Even when using very elastic estimates of the demand elasticity for fluid milk, all producer groups are found to benefit from the quota, though the benefit is much smaller. Under all the quota scenarios, the market price for fluid milk increases, therefore consumers are negatively impacted. Despite the benefits expected under the quota, some dairy farmers may still be opposed to a production control due to concerns over farm expansion potential, potential retaliatory trade actions by other countries, and potential consumer blowback due to higher market prices.


Essays on Dairy Farm Productivity, Tax Policy, and Health Outcomes

Essays on Dairy Farm Productivity, Tax Policy, and Health Outcomes

Author: Yating Gong (Ph.D.)

Publisher:

Published: 2024

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Technology and policies serve as two effective tools for enhancing human production and well-being over time. Technological advancements contribute to increasing productivity and enrich the material consumption of individuals. Governments utilize policies aimed at influencing human behavior to improve social welfare surplus. Understanding the impacts of technology and policies on various aspects of human society empowers policymakers and individuals to make informed decisions. Through studying these effects, policymakers and individuals can develop strategies to maximize benefits and mitigate negative consequences. In the three chapters of my dissertation, I investigated genetic improvements in dairy breeding animals and productivity growth in Wisconsin dairy farms. I explored the long-term effects of in utero cigarette tax exposure on adult health. Finally, I examined the long-term health and behavioral effects of early childhood exposure to childcare subsidy programs. In the first chapter, I examine the relationship between investments in animal breeding and productivity growth on Wisconsin dairy farms using a control function approach. I incorporate farm-level annual investment in breeding and genetics into the law of motion of productivity as in De Loecker (2013) to test the relationship between these investments and realized productivity. Our unique dataset also allows us to look at the effect of choosing bulls with high milk yield potential on productivity. Our results indicate that breeding investments made three years prior are associated with higher productivity of the current cohort. However, the farms with the highest level of productivity reap the lowest benefits from breeding investments, suggesting that there are diminishing returns to investing in genetics. When milk output is not quality-adjusted, the contribution of breeding to productivity is undetectable, suggesting that breeding and investments in milk quality are related. I conclude that investments in breeding and genetics significantly contribute to dairy farm productivity, especially in terms of milk quality. In the second chapter, I explore the long-term effect of in-utero cigarette tax exposure. Cigarette taxes have been shown to reduce maternal smoking and enhance birth outcomes. However, it is still uncertain whether these effects persist into adulthood. This study investigates the effects on adult health outcomes of exposure to higher cigarette taxes while in utero. Utilizing a generalized difference-in-difference methodology and analyzing a rich dataset spanning births from 1968 to 1994, I find that a 10-cent higher cigarette tax while individuals were in utero leads to a significant 1.8 percentage point reduction in the likelihood that the treated individuals (evaluated at ages 25 to 35) ever experienced health conditions such as asthma, lung disease, heart disease, or heart attacks. The examination of mechanisms underscores pathways through parental smoking behavior during pregnancy, birth outcomes, childhood health, smoking behavior in adolescence and adulthood, cognitive ability, educational attainment, and age of first childbirth for treated individuals. The study contributes to the burgeoning literature on early-life determinants of health and enriches our understanding of the complex interplay between cigarette policies and long-term health, with implications for policymakers and public health interventions. In the third chapter, I investigate the health impacts of early-life exposure to Child and Dependent Care Tax Credits (CDCTC). This research leverages variation in state generosity regarding the CDCTC to explore how the accumulated exposure in the first four years of life affects children's health. I suggest that the CDCTC may influence child health through both income and substitution effects, as it boosts household income and encourages the substitution of parental childcare with purchased child care services. Our findings reveal intriguing patterns: children born to mothers with less than high school education reap benefits from CDCTC exposure, whereas those born to mothers with more than high school education experience poorer health outcomes. This discrepancy is attributed to the lower quality of purchased child care services compared to the higher quality of maternal childcare provided by highly educated mothers. The findings from our research on Child and Dependent Care Tax Credits have direct policy relevance. They challenge conventional wisdom on the utility of such subsidies, providing policymakers with nuanced insights that can inform future reforms.