Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area
Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area

Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-06-30

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484306236

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak
Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak

Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-15

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1484328922

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-07

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1484359623

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-23

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484338499

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area

Author: Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-03-26

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 1484348206

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area CFC that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case large or persistent shocks exhaust the fund’s assets. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.

Das Public Kapital
Das Public Kapital

Author: Selim Elekdag

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-12-17

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1498393675

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. While time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened with an accommodative monetary policy stance—as is typical during periods of economic slack. The current low-interest rate environment presents a window of opportunity to finance higher public investment at historically favorable rates.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013
World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-08

Total Pages: 657

ISBN-13: 1484348834

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2016
OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2016

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2016-06-10

Total Pages: 78

ISBN-13: 9264256369

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the Euro Area examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapter cover: Making public finances more growth and equity-friendly.

Highs and Lows of European Integration
Highs and Lows of European Integration

Author: Luisa Antoniolli

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-09-03

Total Pages: 254

ISBN-13: 3319936263

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In light of Europe’s prolonged state of crisis, this book reassesses the challenges and prospects of the European integration process. Scholars from diverse disciplines reflect on various types of integration by analyzing political, economic and sociological variables, while also taking legal and cultural constraints into account. Readers will learn about the dilemmas and challenges of the European transformation process as well as political reforms to overcome these challenges. The book is divided into four parts, the first of which discusses the external dimension of the European Union, including a review of development aid policies and EU foreign policy. In turn, the second part focuses on institutional change and asymmetrical integration in the EU. The third part is devoted to the rise of populism and nationalism, including an analysis of the role of civil society organizations in the Brexit. In closing, the last part highlights the crisis of the Euro as a symbol of European integration and the emerging social and economic divide between countries of the North and South.

The Mechanics of a Strong Euro Area
The Mechanics of a Strong Euro Area

Author: Ms.Petya Koeva Brooks

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-21

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13: 1498305539

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Among member states, many structural weaknesses were exposed when economic performance declined significantly and financial markets became more discerning. This book focuses on the analytical underpinnings of real-time policy advice given to euro area policymakers during four cycles of the IMF’s annual Article IV consultations (2012–15) with euro area authorities.