Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy
Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy

Author: Sebastian Dörr

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-24

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1475588666

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The Italian economy has been struggling with low productivity growth and bank balance sheet strains. This paper examines the implications for firm productivity of adverse shocks to bank lending in Italy, using a novel identification scheme and loan-level data on syndicated lending. We exploit the heterogeneous loan exposure of Italian banks to foreign borrowers in distress, and find that a negative shock to bank credit supply reduces firms' loan growth, investment, capital-to-labor ratio, and productivity. The transmission from changes in credit supply to firm productivity relates to labor market rigidities, which delay or distort the adjustment of firms' desired labor and capital allocations, and thereby reduce firms' productivity. Effects are stronger for firms with higher capital intensity and external financial dependence.

Credit Supply and Productivity Growth
Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

Author: Francesco Manaresi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-17

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13: 1498315917

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We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.

Banks, Firms, and Jobs
Banks, Firms, and Jobs

Author: Fabio Berton

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-02-14

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 1475579012

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We analyze the employment effects of financial shocks using a rich data set of job contracts, matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks in one Italian region. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit supply explains one fourth of the reduction in employment. This result is concentrated in more levered and less productive firms. Also, the relatively less educated and less skilled workers with temporary contracts are the most affected. Our results are consistent with the cleansing role of financial shocks.

Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy
Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy

Author: Sebastian Dörr

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-24

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1475588941

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The Italian economy has been struggling with low productivity growth and bank balance sheet strains. This paper examines the implications for firm productivity of adverse shocks to bank lending in Italy, using a novel identification scheme and loan-level data on syndicated lending. We exploit the heterogeneous loan exposure of Italian banks to foreign borrowers in distress, and find that a negative shock to bank credit supply reduces firms' loan growth, investment, capital-to-labor ratio, and productivity. The transmission from changes in credit supply to firm productivity relates to labor market rigidities, which delay or distort the adjustment of firms' desired labor and capital allocations, and thereby reduce firms' productivity. Effects are stronger for firms with higher capital intensity and external financial dependence.

Credit Demand and Supply Shocks in Italy During the Great Recession
Credit Demand and Supply Shocks in Italy During the Great Recession

Author: Andrea Cipollini

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we use Structural VAR analysis to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks and their eFFect on real economic activity in Italy during the 2008-2014 crisis period. The three endogenous variables considered are the loan interest rate, the loans growth rate and the employment to population ratio. The data are observed at annual frequency for each of 103 Italian provinces. The structural shocks are identified through heteroscedasticity, by letting the variance of the shocks to switch across four Italian macro-regions: North, Centre, South and Islands. Sign restrictions are used to interpret ex post the structural shocks. The empirical findings suggest a more important role of credit supply shocks in shaping the level of real economic activity. Furthermore, the results show that credit crunch hits the North of Italy less than the remaining macro-regions, especially the South-Italy.

Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks

Author: Ms.Yu Shi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-21

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1498316352

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Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide empirical evidence to support the channel.

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default
Banks, Government Bonds, and Default

Author: Nicola Gennaioli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-07-08

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1498391990

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We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.

Italian Sovereign Spreads
Italian Sovereign Spreads

Author: Ms.Edda Zoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-04-03

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484357701

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Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in sovereign spreads affect CDS spreads and bond yields of Italian banks, and are transmitted rapidly to firm lending rates. Banks with lower capital ratios and higher nonperforming loans were found to be more sensitive to swings in sovereign spreads. Credit supply constraints due to bank funding shortages from the sovereign debt crisis were a major factor behind the lending slowdown in late 2011, while in 2012 weak demand appears to have been driving changes in credit more than supply.

Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-25

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 1513573004

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The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data
Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Author: Margherita Bottero

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-28

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1498300855

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We study negative interest rate policy (NIRP) exploiting ECB's NIRP introduction and administrative data from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP has expansionary effects on credit supply-- -and hence the real economy---through a portfolio rebalancing channel. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets, not with higher retail deposits. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to credit—especially to riskier and smaller firms—and cut loan rates, inducing sizable real effects. By shifting the entire yield curve downwards, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the ZLB.