U. S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

U. S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

Author: United States Department of Agriculture

Publisher: CreateSpace

Published: 2015-08-07

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 9781515383161

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This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China's trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China's net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.


Market Threads

Market Threads

Author: Koray Çalişkan

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2010-08-16

Total Pages: 249

ISBN-13: 1400833922

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What is a global market? How does it work? At a time when new crises in world markets cannot be satisfactorily resolved through old ideas, Market Threads presents a detailed analysis of the international cotton trade and argues for a novel and groundbreaking understanding of global markets. The book examines the arrangements, institutions, and power relations on which cotton trading and production depend, and provides an alternative approach to the analysis of pricing mechanisms. Drawing upon research from such diverse places as the New York Board of Trade and the Turkish and Egyptian countrysides, the book explores how market agents from peasants to global merchants negotiate, accept, reject, resist, reproduce, understand, and misunderstand a global market. The book demonstrates that policymakers and researchers must focus on the specific practices of market maintenance in order to know how they operate. Markets do not simply emerge as a relationship among self-interested buyers and sellers, governed by appropriate economic institutions. Nor are they just social networks embedded in wider economic social structures. Rather, global markets are maintained through daily interventions, the production of prosthetic prices, and the waging of struggles among those who produce and exchange commodities. The book illustrates the crucial consequences that these ideas have on economic reform projects and market studies. Spanning a variety of disciplines, Market Threads offers an original look at the world commodity trade and revises prevailing explanations for how markets work.


Cotton Trading Manual

Cotton Trading Manual

Author: Terry Townsend

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2005-10-30

Total Pages: 512

ISBN-13: 1845690923

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Cotton Trading Manual (CTM) is the first work to provide a comprehensive reference source to the conduct of the complex international cotton market. CTM begins by looking at the history of the cotton trade, and then moves on to assess the current global picture, including a discussion of trends in the market, as well as production and consumption analysis. The third and fourth parts focus on trading in physical cotton and futures respectively. Finally, the last section deals with administrative and management issues within the cotton trade as a whole, such as contracts, insurance and risk management. CTM is an indispensable practical companion for all those involved with trading in this commodity. Comprehensive reference to the complex international cotton market Discusses the history of the cotton trade Assesses the global picture, looking at trends and production and consumption analysis