In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. Currency mismatching makes crisis management much more difficult since it constrains the willingness of the monetary authority to reduce interest rates in a recession (for fear of initiating a large fall in the currency that would bring with it large-scale insolvencies). The mismatching also produces a "fear of floating" on the part of emerging economies, sometimes inducing them to make currency-regime choices that are not in their own long-term interest. Authors Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the size of the problem.
Provides deep analyses of some of the devastating financial crises of the last quarter-centures by showing how such factors as the origins and destinations of loans, bank behaviour, bad timing, ignorance of history, trade regimes, capital flight, and corruption coalesce under certain circumstances to trigger a financial crash.
This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.
Recent crises in emerging markets have been heavily driven by balance-sheet or net-worth effects. Episodes in countries as far-flung as Indonesia and Argentina have shown that exchange rate adjustments that would normally help to restore balance can be destabilizing, even catastrophic, for countries whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies. Many economists instinctually assume that developing countries allow their foreign debts to be denominated in dollars, yen, or euros because they simply don't know better. Presenting evidence that even emerging markets with strong policies and institutions experience this problem, Other People's Money recognizes that the situation must be attributed to more than ignorance. Instead, the contributors suggest that the problem is linked to the operation of international financial markets, which prevent countries from borrowing in their own currencies. A comprehensive analysis of the sources of this problem and its consequences, Other People's Money takes the study one step further, proposing a solution that would involve having the World Bank and regional development banks themselves borrow and lend in emerging market currencies.
After building up foreign currency denominated (FC) liabilities over several years, Colombian firms might be vulnerable to a shift in external conditions. We undertake three empirical exercises to better understand these vulnerabilities. First, we identify the determinants of FC borrowing. Second, we investigate the implications for real activity, finding a balance sheet effect that transmits exchange rate fluctuations to investment and is asymmetric, much stronger for depreciations than for appreciations. Finally, we find that foreign exchange derivatives are not used solely for hedging, due in part to monetary authority intervention to smooth exchange rate volatility. However, a full explanation remains open for future research.
Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.
The global financial system has proven increasingly unstable and crisis-prone since the early 1980s. The system has failed to serve either creditors or debtors well. This has been reinforced by the global financial crisis of 2008, where we have seen systemic weaknesses bring rich countries to the brink of bankruptcy and visit appalling suffering on the poorest citizens of poor countries. Yet the regulatory responses to this crisis have involved little thinking from outside the box in which the crisis was delivered to the world. This book presents a powerful indictment of this regulatory failure and calls for greatly increased attention to international financial law and analyses new regulatory measures with the potential to make a new recognition of the principles that ought to underlie it. Using a historical approach that compares the various financial crises of the past three decades, the authors clearly show how misconceived economic policy responses have paved the way for each next ‘crash’. Among the numerous topics that arise in the course of this revealing analysis are the following: overvalued exchange rates; excess liquidity in rich countries; premature liberalisation of local financial markets; capital controls; derivatives markets; accounting standards; credit ratings and the conflicts in the role of credit rating agencies; investor protection arrangements; insurance companies; and payment, clearing and settlement activities. The authors offer detailed commentary on: the role of multilateral development banks, the IMF and the WTO in responding to crises; the role of the Basel Accords, the Financial Stability Forum and Board, and the responses of the European Commission, the US, and the G20 to the most recent crisis. The book concludes by exploring systemic game-changing reforms such as bank levies, financial activities taxes and financial transaction taxes, and a global sovereign bankruptcy regime; as well as measures to remove the currency mismatches from the balance sheets of developing countries. Apart from its great usefulness as a detailed introduction to the international financial system and its regulation, the book is enormously valuable for its clear identification of the areas of regulatory failure, and its analysis of new regulatory approaches that offer the potential for a genuinely more stable system. Banking and investment policymakers at every level, the lawyers that serve these markets and the regulators that seek to regulate them, cannot afford to neglect this book.
This book discusses the relationship between financial liberalization, financial deepening and economic performance from both a theoretical and a policy perspective, comparing several 'big' emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Russia, South Africa and India, amongst others.
An essential reference to all facets of the world economy Increasing economic globalization has made understanding the world economy more important than ever. From trade agreements to offshore outsourcing to foreign aid, this two-volume encyclopedia explains the key elements of the world economy and provides a first step to further research for students and scholars in public policy, international studies, business, and the broader social sciences, as well as for economic policy professionals. Written by an international team of contributors, this comprehensive reference includes more than 300 up-to-date entries covering a wide range of topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development. These topics include concepts and principles, models and theory, institutions and agreements, policies and instruments, analysis and tools, and sectors and special issues. Each entry includes cross-references and a list of sources for further reading and research. Complete with an index and a table of contents that groups entries by topic, The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy is an essential resource for anyone who needs to better understand the global economy. More than 300 alphabetically arranged articles on topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development International team of contributors Annotated list of further reading with each article Topical list of entries Full index and cross-references Entry categories and sample topics: Concepts and principles: globalization, anti-globalization, fair trade, foreign direct investment, international migration, economic development, multinational enterprises Models and theory: Heckscher-Ohlin model, internalization theory, New Trade Theory, North-South trade, Triffin dilemma Institutions and agreements: European Union, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, World Bank, Doha Round, international investment agreements Policies and instruments: dollar standard, international aid, sanctions, tariffs Analysis and tools: exchange rate forecasting, effective protection, monetary policy rules Sectors and special issues: child labor, corporate governance, the digital divide, health and globalization, illegal drugs trade, petroleum, steel
