Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Author: Mr.Fabio Comelli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-17

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484355288

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We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Author: Mr.Fabio Comelli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-17

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1475589999

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We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.

Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Author: Stefan Jansen

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 95

ISBN-13:

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This paper aims at identifying key empirical regularities characterizing the onset of a currency crisis that might be suitable for early warning purposes and proceeds by providing analysis and empirical tests of economic and financial variables both in-sample and out-of-sample in order to assess their performance as leading indicators of a speculative attack. Two distinct methodologies are compared and implications for the theory of currency crises and economic policies to their prevention will be investigated in the process.

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Author: Mr.Fabio Comelli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-05-30

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1484359356

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The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, as the total misclassification error of the former is lower than that of the latter. In addition, we find that the performances of the parametric and non-parametric EWS do not improve if the policymaker becomes more prudent. From a policy perspective, the policymaker faces the standard trade-off when using EWS. Greater prudence allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective macroeconomic policies prematurely.

Early Warning Systems
Early Warning Systems

Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-02-01

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1451845138

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Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises
The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises

Author: Jens Michael Rabe

Publisher: diplom.de

Published: 2000-03-30

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 3832422552

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Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction1 2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4 2.1The Traditional Theory5 2.2Second Generation Models11 2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19 2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22 3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24 3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24 3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26 3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35 3.1.3The Signals Approach40 3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48 4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53 5.Conclusion64 Appendix68 Bibliography69

Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach

Author: Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-27

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1513573586

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In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.

Early Warning Systems
Early Warning Systems

Author: Abdul G. Abiad

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

IEIS2019
IEIS2019

Author: Menggang Li

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-07-02

Total Pages: 743

ISBN-13: 9811556601

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This book presents a range of recent advances concerning industrial restructuring strategies, industrial organization, industrial policy, departmental economic research, industrial competitiveness, regional industrial structure, national industrial economic security theory and empirical research. Successfully combining theory and practice, the book gathers the outcomes of the “6th International Conference on Industrial Economics System and Industrial Security Engineering”, which was held at the University of Maryland, USA.