The first mission of the Colombia FSAP was conducted virtually during June 1–21, 2021. This technical note focuses on the developments in the crisis management framework for the banking sector. The assessment examines the Colombian financial safety net and crisis management arrangements in light of the international best practices and standards on resolution and deposit insurance standards.
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Thailand highlights that assets of the insurance and mutual fund sectors have doubled as a share of gross domestic product over the last decade, and capital markets are largely on par with regional peers. The report discusses significant slowdown in China and advanced economies, a sharp rise in risk premia, and entrenched low inflation would adversely impact the financial system. Stress tests results suggest that the banking sector is resilient to severe shocks and that systemic and contagion risks stemming from interlinkages are limited. Financial system oversight is generally strong, but the operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further. The operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further by reducing the involvement of the Ministry of Finance in prudential issues and ensuring that each agency has full control over decisions that lie within its areas of responsibility.
The pandemic led to Colombia’s largest recession on record, but the economy bounced back strongly in 2021. The banking system has so far weathered the shock well, with the help of a strong policy and support response and strong initial position. Colombia is exposed to elevated external financing risks and the further prolongation of the pandemic. Large and complex financial conglomerates with increasing cross-border exposures dominate the financial system. The consumer-credit portfolio deserves attention as it has been growing fast and had high impairment rate during the pandemic.
This report underlies Canada’s Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in the areas of crisis management and blank resolution. The provincial deposit insurance systems (DIS) and resolution frameworks are highly heterogeneous and the FSAP’s analysis suggests that the preparedness to overcome financial stress should be enhanced. The IMF report discusses that the federal legal and institutional arrangements for resolving individual financial institutions are robust. It suggests that clear mandates should be assigned to: (1) monitor systematic risk to facilitate macroprudential oversight; and (2) carry out system wide crisis preparedness.
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) risk analysis work was conducted in the aftermath of the initial COVID shock and subsequent lockdowns, and while a strong economic recovery was underway in Colombia during 2021. Given the persistent uncertainty around the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, and for the trajectory of the economic recovery, the outlook remained subject to significant revisions throughout the year. While the workstreams took the latest macroeconomic and supervisory data updates into account as much as possible for the various analyses, the test results and their implications should be interpreted with caution due to high uncertainty around the central projections and downside risks.
