This review assesses the performance of Colombian agriculture over the last two decades, evaluates Colombian agricultural policy reforms and provides recommendations to address key challenges in the future.
Nonformal general equilibrium, consistency approaches and frameworks. General, systems simulation approach. Linear programming models. Multi-level planning models. Operational usefluness of analysis and models to users.
With oil accounting for roughly half of Colombia’s total exports, Latin America’s fourth-largest economy is feeling the effects of lower international oil prices. The negative impact of lower prices was nonetheless offset by positive performances by the retail, agriculture and financial services sectors, ensuring continued growth in 2015. Higher growth is expected in 2016 and beyond, driven in part by a raft of transport infrastructure investments, known as the fourth generation road concession programme. On the political front, the prospect of the signing of a peace accord between the government of Juan Manuel Santos Calderón and the leaders of the FARC promises to make 2016 a memorable year for Colombia. According to the National Planning Department, the peace settlement could bolster economic growth by up to 1.9 percentage points, lower security costs and signal the opening up of previously closed areas of the country to development.
Indeed, the sound performance of the construction sector, strong investment in public works, restored consumer confidence and a recovery in the hydrocarbons industry enabled Colombia’s economy to regain dynamism and end 2013 with growth of 4.7%. Attracting a record $16.36bn in foreign direct investment in 2013, an 8.2% rise on the previous year, the Andean economy assured its spot among the region’s top investment targets. As in previous years, hydrocarbons attracted the lion’s share of FDI to the country, accounting for 81.6% of the total. While GDP grew by just 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014, the central bank forecasts growth of 4.3% for the year. With the possibility of a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the next few years could see economic performance enhanced by improved agricultural and energy outputs, as well as increased FDI inflows.