Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies

Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies

Author: Walt L. Perry

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 85

ISBN-13: 0833044567

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"Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. It is likely that U.S. forces will face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies that are unwilling to engage in conventional combat with U.S. forces. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies. The authors examine the stages of an insurgency and discuss the kinds of intelligence that are needed at each stage. A number of techniques -- pattern discernment and predictive analysis, for example -- appear to show promise of being useful to intelligence analysis. The authors also explore two closely connected methods in depth to examine the interactions between friendly and enemy forces: game theory and change detection." -- p. [4] of cover.


Counterinsurgency Operations (FMI 3-07.22)

Counterinsurgency Operations (FMI 3-07.22)

Author: United States Army

Publisher: Wildside Press LLC

Published: 2019-07-13

Total Pages: 182

ISBN-13: 1479444308

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Counterinsurgency is those military, paramilitary, political, economic, psychological, and civic actions taken by a government to defeat insurgency (JP 1-02). It is an offensive approach involving all elements of national power; it can take place across the range of operations and spectrum of conflict. It supports and influences an HN’s IDAD program. It includes strategic and operational planning; intelligence development and analysis; training; materiel, technical, and organizational assistance; advice; infrastructure development; tactical-level operations; and many elements of PSYOP. Generally, the preferred methods of support are through assistance and development programs. Leaders must consider the roles of military, intelligence, diplomatic, law enforcement, information, finance, and economic elements (MIDLIFE) in counterinsurgency.


Strategic Intelligence and Civil Affairs to Understand Legitimacy and Insurgency

Strategic Intelligence and Civil Affairs to Understand Legitimacy and Insurgency

Author: Diane E. Chido

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-05-31

Total Pages: 72

ISBN-13: 3030209776

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This book describes the common pitfalls of U.S. military interventions in efforts at stabilization, which supports post-conflict societies by establishing stable governance, rule of law, a safe and secure environment, economic development and social well-being for all members of the population. These efforts are often unsuccessful and can even cause harm when mission teams do not understand both the populations with whom they are engaging and policymakers. The book recommends prioritizing a relational approach to stabilization with a professional and well-resourced Civil Affairs and strategic intelligence approach to engagements over the current preference for transactional, often lethal operations.


Going to War with the Allies You Have: Allies, Counterinsurgency, and the War on Terrorism

Going to War with the Allies You Have: Allies, Counterinsurgency, and the War on Terrorism

Author:

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1428916350

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Potential U.S. allies in counterinsurgencies linked to al-Qaida frequently suffer from four types of problems: illegitimate and repressive regimes; civilian-military tension manifested by fears of a coup; economic backwardness; and discriminatory societies. Because of these problems, allies often stray far from the counterinsurgency (COIN) ideal, both militarily and politically. Their security service culture often is characterized by poor intelligence; a lack of initiative; little integration of forces across units; soldiers who do not want to fight; bad leadership; and problems with training, learning, and creativity. In addition, the structural weaknesses have a direct political effect that can aid an insurgency by hindering the development and implementation of a national strategy, fostering poor relations with outside powers that might otherwise assist the COIN effort, encouraging widespread corruption, alienating the security forces from the overall population, and offering the insurgents opportunities to penetrate the security forces. Washington must recognize that its allies, including these security forces, are often the source of the problem as well as the solution. The author argues that the ally's structural problems and distinct interests have daunting implications for successful U.S. counterinsurgency efforts. The nature of regimes and of societies feeds an insurgency, but the United States is often hostage to its narrow goals with regard to counterinsurgency and thus becomes complicit in the host-nation's self-defeating behavior. Unfortunately, U.S. influence often is limited as the allies recognize that America's vital interests with regard to fighting al-Qaida-linked groups are likely to outweigh any temporary anger at an ally's brutality or failure to institute reforms. Training, military-to-military contacts, education programs, and other efforts to shape their COIN capabilities are beneficial, but the effects are likely to be limited at best.


Street Smart

Street Smart

Author: Jamison Jo Medby

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2002-10-16

Total Pages: 178

ISBN-13: 0833033751

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Intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB), the Army's traditional methodology for finding and analyzing relevant information for its operations, is not effective for tackling the operational and intelligence challenges of urban operations. The authors suggest new ways to categorize the complex terrain, infrastructure, and populations of urban environments and incorporate this information into Army planning and decisionmaking processes.


Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Author: Seth G. Jones

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 176

ISBN-13: 0833041339

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This study explores the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan, the key challenges and successes of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, and the capabilities necessary to wage effective counterinsurgency operations. By examining the key lessons from all insurgencies since World War II, it finds that most policymakers repeatedly underestimate the importance of indigenous actors to counterinsurgency efforts. The U.S. should focus its resources on helping improve the capacity of the indigenous government and indigenous security forces to wage counterinsurgency. It has not always done this well. The U.S. military-along with U.S. civilian agencies and other coalition partners-is more likely to be successful in counterinsurgency warfare the more capable and legitimate the indigenous security forces (especially the police), the better the governance capacity of the local state, and the less external support that insurgents receive.


Subversion and Insurgency

Subversion and Insurgency

Author: William Rosenau

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 0833041231

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The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have generated intense interest in counterinsurgency within the U.S. armed forces, the intelligence community, the State Department, and the Department of Defense. However, subversion-a critical part of the repertoire of many insurgent groups-remains a neglected subject. This paper presents a set of case studies to explore the elements of subversion in-depth. It discusses preliminary ideas for combating subversive activities in the context of the "long war" against violent Islamist extremism and concludes with a discussion of how American support for countersubversion within authoritarian regimes can conflict with other important U.S. foreign policy objectives, such as the promotion of human rights.


Guerrilla Counterinsurgency

Guerrilla Counterinsurgency

Author: Graham Hall Turbiville

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 9781933749297

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Insurgent groups need to secure their operations to ensure effectiveness. This leads them to develop counterintelligence rules and an organizational structure that ensures security. In small groups this may be limited to security-focused rules of conduct, but as groups grow in size and complexity, the need for a more robust security organization is needed. Dr. Turbiville highlights the critical element of security and how insurgent groups ignore it at their peril. Piercing a group's intelligence capabilities can be critical in undermining its operations. One of the greatest threats to insurgent groups' internal security is infiltration. Shielding itself from government and military infiltration is a critical element in ensuring an insurgent group's freedom of operation. Ultimately, this requires the local population to either actively support or passively tolerate the insurgents. The population's loyalty, a fundamental tenet of irregular warfare, is the objective of both sides fighting in an insurgency. This monograph has significant implications for U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) as they continue to operate in both combat and noncombat zones against groups desiring to overthrow existing governments. To counteract an insurgency, SOF and the host nation must overcome the insurgent group's internal security processes while protecting their own operations and organizations from insurgent infiltration.


The Third Option

The Third Option

Author: Theodore Shackley

Publisher:

Published: 1981

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13:

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Year by year, nation by nation, the United States has relinquished its ability to control events throughout the world. This abdication of global responsibility has created vast power vacuums. The challenge is unmistakably clear: do we control our own destiny and survival, or do others -- others who mean us no good. Our options in dealing with this dilemma are painfully few. At one end there is negotiation and diplomacy; at the other lies the unthinkable--war. Now Theodore Shackley opens up for thoughtful readers another way, a more flexible use of power--the Third Option. In this, one of the most important books of the coming decade, an outstanding intelligence officer and expert on counterinsurgency offers a long-range strategy for America. In broad strokes he pictures the challenge that faces us in the eighties; then he presents a detailed examination of how counterinsurgency can work to protect our interests in a volatile and rapidly changing world. He discusses the phases of insurgency: the cadre phase, using the El Salvador as a case study; the operational phase, using and the covert war phase, using Angola as a case study. Each of these case studies, a valuable lesson in how intelligence services actually operate, reveals how Soviet-backed insurgencies threaten the security of the free world. The challenges and dangers we face require us to view our national security in terms of the interrelationship of political, economic and military factors--if we intend to remain a great power. The message of this book is that we cannot limit our national security to a strictly military or diplomatic alternative. To achieve our foreign policy objectives and to help friendly nations resist subversion we must turn to the Third Option.