The Chinese economy today is at a critical crossroads. Sustained rapid growth has given rise to structural strains as well as sectoral imbalances. It has also generated socio-economic problems such as rising income inequality, rural discontent and environmental degradation. All of these must be addressed before China can enter the next lap of high growth.Containing 12 chapters, this volume is a collaborative effort of leading economists from Beijing, Singapore and elsewhere in the region in analyzing China's economic growth prospects and their concomitant problems and constraints.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
China’s transformation into a dynamic private-sector-led economy and its integration into the world economy have been among the most dramatic global economic developments of recent decades. This paper provides an overview of some of the key aspects of recent developments in China’s macroeconomy and economic structure. It also surveys the main policy challenges that will need to be addressed for China to maintain sustained high growth and continued global integration.
Many believed that the world would remain everlastingly unchangeable in the aftermath of victory of the Allies the United States, the Soviet Union, China, United Kingdom and France--in World War II. They remodeled the world map amongst themselves and affirmed that they will be guarantors of the international status-quo. However, those who pledged to conserve peace are now breaking it, leading the planet to the edge of clash. This book differs from all others that dealt with possible World War III scenarios since it combines knowledge in the fields of history, international relations, economics, sociology, and psychology and philosophy .Thus, giving the reader a broader outlook on such matters as: - Potentially risky world war scenarios ; - Dialogue between the West and Islam; - New emerging superpowers; - Psychological and Cyber Ware fare; - Preventive mechanisms such as early-warning and preparedness operations.
In this book, top scholars of China from around the world combine to offer deep analyses of recent trends in China's economy and society in order to help understand the country's future. Topics covered include: population, agriculture, internal migration, industry and banking reform, resource constraint and environmental impact.
The report explains the current state of inclusive business (IB) models from the People's Republic of China, drawing from domestic and international company examples and practices. Key characteristics of IBs in terms of sector, size, and business model, and challenges facing these IBs are discussed. It also presents opportunities for IB to build on existing government programs, and proposes actions various stakeholders can take to promote the growth of IB in the People's Republic of China.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's energy diplomacy has been expanding rapidly and the country is searching for energy resources worldwide. This movement has not only improved China's energy security and international relations, but also enabled the Chinese national oil companies (NOCs) to access new investment markets and implement development strategies. The Chinese government and the NOCs need each other's support to realise their respective interests. The interaction between the government and the NOCs will have a critical influence on China's energy diplomacy. The Domestic Dynamics of China's Energy Diplomacy explores the long-neglected domestic dynamics of China's energy diplomacy, in particular the interaction of national and corporate interests. It argues that the convergence of national and corporate interests is the key momentum of China's energy diplomacy. It observes that the government-NOC relationship has been evolving with China's economic and enterprise reform. Finally, it tests the empirical evidence of the domestic dynamics of China's energy diplomacy against the three mainstream international political economy theories, showing their merits and shortcomings in explaining the phenomenon, before providing an alternative conceptualisation of the movement.
This book provides an overview on the global financial crisis and a detailed study of its impact on China. It covers topics such as China's response to tackling the crisis and its impact on her once mighty manufacturing industry. Standing Up to the Challenge will also investigate its effect on China's property and stock markets, and explore whether the crisis will have a positive effect with regard to China's overseas investments thus acting as an impetus for its Western development process. Written in a simple and accessible manner, this book can be used as a reference source by students and academics interested in China's economy and the global financial crisis.
China has undergone a remarkable transition over the past thirty years from a centrally-planned economy to a more market oriented one. The transformation of business in China has been correspondingly evident. This book gives an interdisciplinary analysis of the evolution of business development in China and the 'marketization' of industry during this period within a complex framework of legal, political, and economic reform aims. The book includes twelve original business case studies to provide industry-specific analysis of the overarching macroeconomic and legal developments. It examines both domestic enterprise reform in China and the evolving treatment of foreign firms in the context of both corporate laws and economic policies, and how business is likely to evolve as economic and legal reforms rapidly increase during the twenty-first century, notably with regard to China's increasing global integration.
