The book aims at perfecting the national governance system and improving national governance ability. It evaluates the balance sheets of the state and residents, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and the central bank, the central government, local government and external sectors – the goal being to provide a systematic analysis of the characteristics and trajectory of China’s economic expansion and structural adjustment, as well as objective assessments of short and long-term economic operations, debt risks and financial risks with regard to the institutional and structural characteristics of economic development in market-oriented reform. It puts forward a preliminary analysis of China’s national and sectoral balance sheets on the basis of scientific estimates of various kinds of data, analyzes from a new perspective the major issues that are currently troubling China – development sustainability, government transformation, local government debt, welfare reform, and the financial opening-up and stability – and explores corresponding policies, measures, and institutional arrangements.
Since the appearance of macroeconomics in the 1940s, economists have created many theoretical frameworks to explain the origin and mechanism of economic fluctuations. However, few of these have managed to gain explanatory power over reality; nor can they solve real-life problems. This book proposes a new macroeconomic paradigm that makes breakthroughs in these areas. Based on a balance sheet approach and macro-financial linkage analysis, this book carries out a comprehensive analysis of the trends within China’s macroeconomy in 2020. The author argues that the COVID-19 pandemic created a great degree of uncertainty—therefore, supply-side structural reform and improved total factor productivity have been promoted to ensure a policy of steady growth. Given the declining economic growth rate in percentage terms, China has needed to adapt to a moderate increase in the leverage ratio while applying more effective fiscal policies to achieve a dynamic balance between stable growth and risk prevention. Scholars and students of economics and finance, especially Chinese economics, will find this book a useful reference.
The book is based on the research concerning China’s National Balance Sheet (NBS) which is conducted by NIFD, the unique research groups in China focusing on NBS. The relative data have been quoted by the IMF, Chinese government sectors, influential investment banks at home and abroad. This book offers readers a unique edited work that systematically presents solutions to manage financial risk in the context of the current situation in China.
This book collects high-quality papers on issues related to the rebalancing strategy in China, new clean cities as “hubs’’, liability management, and involving the private sector, including through PPPs, with specific examples from Guangdong. Guangdong has been at the forefront of economic reforms in China since the advent of the Responsibility System in the late 1970s, and its successes and challenges reflect those of China as a whole. The need for rebalancing towards a more inclusive and sustainable path is also critical in Guangdong, just as it is in China. Strengthening the fiscal underpinnings and the next stages of tax reforms are critical drivers to accomplishing the requisite structural changes.
The Chinese economy is currently undergoing fundamental changes. In this context, the 2022 China Update examines the key characteristics of China’s transition towards a new phase of economic growth and development. This year’s update book covers a range of diverse topics that reflect the complex and changing nature of the economy. It explores critical questions: Why does China need a new development paradigm, and what is the best way to achieve it? What are China’s choices when faced with the restructuring of global industrial value chains? What key roles will domestic consumption play in the next phase of China’s development? What does the digital transformation mean for the Chinese economy? What has been the domestic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on income inequality and labour market outcomes? What pathways exist for China in its transition towards carbon neutrality? How does China’s emissions-trading market compare with that of Europe? How will China’s carbon neutrality strategy affect the Australian economy? What are the political factors influencing bilateral trade flows between China and its trading partners? And what is at stake for China–US relations?
Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
This book examines the regulatory framework, regulatory objectives, regulatory logics, regulatory instruments, regulatory failures, and regulatory responses in China’s financial market after the global financial crisis. The book provides an in-depth analysis of China’s contemporary financial regulatory system, focusing on risks, regulation, and policies in practice. By drawing on public and private interest theories relating to financial regulation, the book contends that the controlled development of the banking sector, and the financial sector generally, has transformed China’s banks into more market-oriented institutions and increased public sector growth. However, China’s financial market and financial regulation have some inherent weaknesses and deficiencies. This book also offers insights into how this can be improved or adapted to minimize systemic risks in China’s financial sector. This book tries to prove that financial regulation is not just a vehicle for maintaining efficient financial markets but a primary tool through which the Chinese government achieves its political and economic objectives. More fundamentally, according to the law and finance theory, strong market and vibrant judicial systems are needed to further modernize China’s financial markets and market economy. The book will be a useful reference for anyone interested in learning from the Chinese experience.
Public sector balance sheets provide the most comprehensive picture of public wealth. They bring together all the accumulated assets and liabilities that the government controls, including public corporations, natural resources, and pension liabilities. They thus account for the entirety of what the state owns and owes, offering a broader fiscal picture beyond debt and deficits. Most governments do not provide such transparency, thereby avoiding the additional scrutiny it brings. Better balance sheet management enables countries to increase revenues, reduce risks, and improve fiscal policymaking. There is some empirical evidence that financial markets are increasingly paying attention to the entire government balance sheet and that strong balance sheets enhance economic resilience. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor presents a new database that shows comprehensive estimates of public sector assets and liabilities for a broad sample of 31 countries, covering 61 percent of the global economy, and provides tools to analyze and manage public wealth. Estimates of public wealth reveal the full scale of public assets and liabilities. Assets are worth US$101 trillion or 219 percent of GDP in the sample. This includes 120 percent of GDP in public corporation assets. Also included are natural resources that average 110 percent of GDP among the large natural-resource-producing countries. Recognizing these assets does not negate the vulnerabilities associated with the standard measure of general government public debt, comprising 94 percent of GDP for these countries. This is only half of total public sector liabilities of 198 percent of GDP, which also includes 46 percent of GDP in already accrued pension liabilities. Once governments understand the size and nature of public assets, they can start managing them more effectively. Potential gains from better asset management are considerable. Revenue gains from nonfinancial public corporations and government financial assets alone could be as high as 3 percent of GDP a year, equivalent to annual corporate tax collections across advanced economies. In addition, considerable gains could be realized from government nonfinancial assets. Public assets are a significant resource, and how governments use and report on them matters, not just for financial reasons, but also in terms of improving service delivery and preventing the misuse of resources that often results from a lack of transparency.
Drawing on an expanded data set covering emerging markets and low-income countries as well as advanced economies, this issue examines the extent and makeup of global debt and asks what role fiscal policy can play in facilitating the adjustment. The analytical framework explicitly models the interlinkages between private and public debt in analyzing the role of fiscal policy in the deleveraging process. Country case studies provide useful insights on what fiscal policy should and should not do to facilitate deleveraging while minimizing the drag on the economy.
