Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments
Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-11-25

Total Pages: 101

ISBN-13: 0309445515

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The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about "observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future." The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning. The USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment

Author: Jana Sillmann

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2019-11-20

Total Pages: 378

ISBN-13: 0128148950

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Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience.

Climate Change and Development
Climate Change and Development

Author: Thomas Tanner

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2014-01-10

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 1136739130

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The evidence for human-induced climate change is now overwhelming, the brunt of its impacts is already being felt by poor people, and the case for urgent action is compelling. This book addresses the two greatest challenges of our time – averting catastrophic climate change and eradicating poverty – and the close interconnections between them. Climate Change and Development provides a comprehensive and multi-disciplinary foundation for understanding the complex and tangled relationship between development and climate change. It argues that transformational approaches are required in order to reconcile poverty reduction and climate protection and secure sustained prosperity in the twenty first century. Section One provides the building blocks for understanding climate science and the nexus between climate and development. Section Two outlines responses to climate change from the perspective of developing countries, with chapters on international agreements, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and climate finance. Each chapter offers analytical tools for evaluating responses, enabling readers to ask smart questions about the climate change and development nexus as policy and action evolve in the coming years. The last three chapters of the book, contained in Section Three, are forward looking and focus on why and how development must be re-framed to deliver more equitable and sustainable outcomes. This section sets out different critiques of ‘development-as-usual’ and explores alternative paradigms of development in a warming and resource-constrained world. This is an invaluable and clearly written text that uses real world examples to bring to life perspectives from across different disciplines. It also contains chapter learning outcomes, and end of chapter summaries, discussion questions, and suggestions for further reading and relevant websites. The text is suitable for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, as well as those working in international development contexts who wish to get to grips with this pressing global challenge.

Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products
Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2014-12-19

Total Pages: 123

ISBN-13: 0309310032

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Despite the extensive body of evidence that informs regulatory decisions on pharmaceutical products, significant uncertainties persist, including the underlying variability in human biology, factors associated with the chemistry of a drug, and limitations in the research and clinical trial process itself that might limit the generalizability of results. As a result, regulatory reviewers are consistently required to draw conclusions about a drug's safety and efficacy from imperfect data. Efforts are underway within the drug development community to enhance the evaluation and communication of the benefits and risks associated with pharmaceutical products, aimed at increasing the predictability, transparency, and efficiency of pharmaceutical regulatory decision making. Effectively communicating regulatory decisions necessarily includes explanation of the impact of uncertainty on decision making. On February 12 and May 12, 2014, the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation held public workshops to advance the development of more systematic and structured approaches to characterize and communicate the sources of uncertainty in the assessment of benefits and risks, and to consider their implications for pharmaceutical regulatory decisions. Workshop presentations and discussions on February 12 were convened to explore the science of identifying and characterizing uncertainty in scientific evidence and approaches to translate uncertainties into decisions that reflect the values of stakeholders. The May 12 workshop presentations and discussions explored tools and approaches to communicating about scientific uncertainties to a range of stakeholders in the drug development process. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products summarizes the presentation and discussion of both events. This report explores potential analytical and communication approaches and identifies key considerations on their development, evaluation, and incorporation into pharmaceutical benefit- risk assessment throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.

Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment
Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2018-05-18

Total Pages: 207

ISBN-13: 0309471729

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Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2012-05-28

Total Pages: 593

ISBN-13: 1107025060

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Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States
Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States

Author: US Global Change Research Program

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2018-02-06

Total Pages: 592

ISBN-13: 1510726217

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As global climate change proliferates, so too do the health risks associated with the changing world around us. Called for in the President’s Climate Action Plan and put together by experts from eight different Federal agencies, The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment is a comprehensive report on these evolving health risks, including: Temperature-related death and illness Air quality deterioration Impacts of extreme events on human health Vector-borne diseases Climate impacts on water-related Illness Food safety, nutrition, and distribution Mental health and well-being This report summarizes scientific data in a concise and accessible fashion for the general public, providing executive summaries, key takeaways, and full-color diagrams and charts. Learn what health risks face you and your family as a result of global climate change and start preparing now with The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author: Patrick A. Ray

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2015-08-20

Total Pages: 149

ISBN-13: 1464804788

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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.