Causality in Macroeconomics
Causality in Macroeconomics

Author: Kevin D. Hoover

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2001-08-13

Total Pages: 330

ISBN-13: 9780521002882

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First published in 2001, Causality in Macroeconomics addresses the long-standing problems of causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. The practical concerns of the macroeconomist and abstract concerns of the philosopher inform each other. Grounded in pragmatic realism, the book rejects the popular idea that macroeconomics requires microfoundations, and argues that the macroeconomy is a set of structures that are best analyzed causally. Ideas originally due to Herbert Simon and the Cowles Commission are refined and generalized to non-linear systems, particularly to the non-linear systems with cross-equation restrictions that are ubiquitous in modern macroeconomic models with rational expectations (with and without regime-switching). These ideas help to clarify philosophical as well as economic issues. The structural approach to causality is then used to evaluate more familiar approaches to causality due to Granger, LeRoy and Glymour, Spirtes, Scheines and Kelly, as well as vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and the exogeneity concepts of Engle, Hendry and Richard.

Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics
Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics

Author: Tobias Henschen

Publisher:

Published: 2024

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780367557256

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"Central banks and other policymaking institutions use causal hypotheses to justify macroeconomic policy decisions to the public and public institutions. These hypotheses say that changes in one macroeconomic aggregate (e.g. aggregate demand) cause changes in other macroeconomic aggregates (e.g. in inflation). An important (perhaps the most important) goal of macroeconomists is to provide conclusive evidence in support of these hypotheses. If they cannot provide any conclusive evidence, then policymaking institutions will be unable to use causal hypotheses to justify policy decisions, and then the scientific objectivity of macroeconomic policy analysis will be questionable. The book analyzes the accounts of causality that have been or can be proposed to capture the type of causality that underlies macroeconomic policy analysis, the empirical methods of causal inference that contemporary macroeconomists have at their disposal, and the conceptions of scientific objectivity that traditionally play a role in economics. The book argues that contemporary macroeconomists cannot provide any conclusive evidence in support of causal hypotheses, and that macroeconomic policy analysis doesn't qualify as scientifically objective in any of the traditional meanings. The book also considers a number of steps that might have to be taken in order for macroeconomic policy analysis to become more objective. The book addresses philosophers of science and economics as well as (macro-) economists, econometricians and statisticians who are interested in causality and macro-econometric methods of causal inference and their wider philosophical and social context"--

The Philosophy of Causality in Economics
The Philosophy of Causality in Economics

Author: Mariusz Maziarz

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2020-05-13

Total Pages: 223

ISBN-13: 1000069109

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Approximately one in six top economic research papers draws an explicitly causal conclusion. But what do economists mean when they conclude that A ‘causes’ B? Does ‘cause’ say that we can influence B by intervening on A, or is it only a label for the correlation of variables? Do quantitative analyses of observational data followed by such causal inferences constitute sufficient grounds for guiding economic policymaking? The Philosophy of Causality in Economics addresses these questions by analyzing the meaning of causal claims made by economists and the philosophical presuppositions underlying the research methods used. The book considers five key causal approaches: the regularity approach, probabilistic theories, counterfactual theories, mechanisms, and interventions and manipulability. Each chapter opens with a summary of literature on the relevant approach and discusses its reception among economists. The text details case studies, and goes on to examine papers which have adopted the approach in order to highlight the methods of causal inference used in contemporary economics. It analyzes the meaning of the causal claim put forward, and finally reconstructs the philosophical presuppositions accepted implicitly by economists. The strengths and limitations of each method of causal inference are also considered in the context of using the results as evidence for policymaking. This book is essential reading to those interested in literature on the philosophy of economics, as well as the philosophy of causality and economic methodology in general.

Methodological Foundations of Macroeconomics
Methodological Foundations of Macroeconomics

Author: Alessandro Vercelli

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991-09-26

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 9780521392945

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This book is an investigation of the methodological and epistemological foundations of macroeconomic theory, based on an examination of the theories of Keynes and Lucas. It is divided into two parts. In the first Professor Vercelli discusses the methodological issues which lie behind the conflict among different schools of thought in macroeconomics (equilibrium and disequilibrium, risk and uncertainty, rationality and causality). These issues are central to the current debate not only in many branches of economics, but also in other scientific disciplines. The traditional point of view of science based on equilibrium, stability and determinism has been increasingly challenged by a new point of view in which disequilibrium, instability and uncertainty play a crucial role. This, the author argues, is bound to put macroeconomics in a new, more promising position. In the second part of the book the author compares the two main alternative research programmes in macroeconomics: that outlined by Keynes in his 'General Theory', and that suggested by Lucas, the leader of the new classical economists.

Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics
Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics

Author: Mario Forni

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 9780198288008

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Through careful methodological analysis, this book argues that modern macroeconomics has completely overlooked the aggregate nature of the data. In Part I, the authors test and reject the homogeneity assumption using disaggregate data. In Part II, they demonstrate that apart from random flukes, cointegration unidirectional Granger causality and restrictions on parameters do not survive aggregation when heterogeneity is introduced. They conclude that the claim that modern macroeconomics has solid microfoundations is unwarranted. However, some important theory-based models that do not fit aggregate data well in their representative-agent version can be reconciled with aggregate data by introducing heterogeneity.

The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics
The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics

Author: Kevin D. Hoover

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2001-10-11

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 9780521003216

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The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics stakes out a pragmatic middle-ground between traditional, prescriptive economic methodology and recent descriptive (sociological or rhetorical) methodology. The former is sometimes seen as arrogantly telling economists how to do their work and the latter as irrelevant to their practice. The lectures are built around a case study of a concrete example of macroeconomic analysis. They demonstrate that economic methodology and the philosophy of science offer insights that help to resolve the genuine concerns of macroeconomists. Some examples of questions addressed include: What is the relationship between theoretical models and empirical observations? What is the relevance of macroeconomics to policy? Should macroeconomics be viewed as a special case of microeconomics? What is the place of long-standing philosophical issues in macroeconomics, such as the scope and nature of economic laws, the role of idealizations, methodological individualism, and the problem of causality?

Reductionism in Economics
Reductionism in Economics

Author: Kevin D. Hoover

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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In many sciences - physical, but also biology, neuroscience, and other life sciences - one object of reductionism is to purge intentionality from the fundamental basis of both explanations and the explanatory target. The scientifically relevant level - ontologically and epistemologically - is thought to lie deeper than the level of ordinary human interactions. In the material and living world, the more familiar is the less fundamental. In contrast, the economic world of day-to-day life - the world of market interactions - appears to be the relevant level. Macroeconomics is thought to provide an account that is above, not below or behind, ordinary economic decision-making. An advantage of a macroeconomic account is that it is possible to employ causal analysis of the economy as a whole analogous to the causal analysis of physical systems. The fear of many economists is that such analyses are untethered to ordinary economic decision-making. The object of reductionism in economics - the so-called microfoundations of macroeconomics - is adequately to ground or replace higher level causal analysis with an analysis of the day-to-day interactions of people. The object is not to purge intentionality, but to reclaim it. The paper will attempt to understand the key issues surrounding the microfoundations of macroeconomics from a perspectival realist perspective that elucidates the relationship between economists' methodological preference for microfoundations and need for macroeconomic analysis - that is, between economists' respect for the intentional nature of economic life and the need for a causal analysis of the economy. The paper favors metaphysical humility and methodological pragmatism.

Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles
Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles

Author: Arvid Aulin

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13: 3642957382

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A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.

Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth
Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Author: Mr.Andrew J Tiffin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-01

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1513518305

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Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some leading work in this area, using a concrete example—assessing the impact of a hypothetical banking crisis on a country’s growth. By enabling consideration of a rich set of potential nonlinearities, and by allowing individually-tailored policy assessments, machine learning can provide an invaluable complement to the skill set of economists within the Fund and beyond.