A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.
A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.
Dealing with factors affecting economic growth in knowledge-based societies, the author shows that the interaction between material and nonmaterial values is the ultimate source of all economic growth. The model thus developed predicts the quantitative facts concerning business cycles better than the conventional real-cycle models, while also producing a new growth path whose existence is verified by empirical facts. The results provide strong evidence of the economic relevance of nonmaterial values, and also prompt a new view of the stochastic elements in the business cycles.
The monograph gives a theoretical explanation of observed cooperative behavior in common pool situations. The incentives for cooperative decision making are investigated by means of a cooperative game theoretical framework. In a first step core existence results are worked out. Whereas general core existence results provide us with an answer for mutual cooperation, nothing can be said how strong these incentives and how stable these cooperative agreements are. To clarify these questions the convexity property for common pool TU-games in scrutinized in a second step. It is proved that the convexity property holds for a large subclass of symmetrical as well as asymmetrical cooperative common pool games. Core existence and the convexity results provide us with a theoretical explanation to bridge the gap between the observation in field studies for cooperation and the noncooperative prediction that the common pool resource will be overused and perhaps endangered.
The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose. Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for both of the above mentioned reasons.
The first attempts to develop a utility theory for choice situations under risk were undertaken by Cramer (1728) and Bernoulli (1738). Considering the famous St. Petersburg Paradox! - a lottery with an infinite expected monetary value -Bernoulli (1738, p. 209) observed that most people would not spend a significant amount of money to engage in that gamble. To account for this observation, Bernoulli (1738, pp. 199-201) proposed that the expected monetary value has to be replaced by the expected utility ("moral expectation") as the relevant criterion for decision making under risk. However, Bernoulli's 2 argument and particularly his choice of a logarithmic utility function seem to be rather arbitrary since they are based entirely on intuitively 3 appealing examples. Not until two centuries later, did von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) prove that if the preferences of the decision maker satisfy cer tain assumptions they can be represented by the expected value of a real-valued utility function defined on the set of consequences. Despite the identical mathematical form of expected utility, the theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern and Bernoulli's approach have, however, IFor comprehensive discussions of this paradox cf. Menger (1934), Samuelson (1960), (1977), Shapley (1977a), Aumann (1977), Jorland (1987), and Zabell (1987). 2Cramer (1728, p. 212), on the other hand, proposed that the utility of an amount of money is given by the square root of this amount.
This book is a revised version of my doctoral dissertation submitted to the University of St. Gallen in October 1999. I would like to thank Dr. oec. Marc Wildi whose careful reading of much of the text led to many improvements. All errors remain mine. Pfiiffikon SZ, Switzerland, March 2001 Pierre-Yves Moix Preface to the dissertation "Education is man's going forward from cocksure ignorance to thoughtful uncertainty" Don Clark's Scrapbook quoted in Wonnacott and Wonnacott (1990). After several years of banking practice, I decided to give up some of my certitudes and considered this thesis project a good opportunity to study some of the quantitative tools necessary for the modelling of uncertainty. lowe very much to Prof. Dr. Karl Frauendorfer, the referee of my thesis, for the time he took to read the manuscript and for the numerous valuable suggestions he made. I am also very grateful to Prof. Dr. Klaus Spremann who kindly accepted to co-refer my thesis and who strengthened my inter est in finance during my study period. During my time at the Institute for Operations Research of the University of St. Gallen (lfU-HSG) I had the opportunity to participate in the project "RiskLab" which provides a very profitable link between finance practice and academics. I would especially like to thank Dr. Christophe Rouvinez from Credit Suisse for his comments and all the data he provided so generously.
Network optimization is important in the modeling of problems and processes from such fields as engineering, computer science, operations research, transportation, telecommunication, decision support systems, manufacturing, and airline scheduling. Recent advances in data structures, computer technology, and algorithm development have made it possible to solve classes of network optimization problems that until recently were intractable. The refereed papers in this volume reflect the interdisciplinary efforts of a large group of scientists from academia and industry to model and solve complicated large-scale network optimization problems.
The organizers of the 12th International Conference on Multiple Cri teria Decision Making (MCDM) held June 19-23, 1995 in Hagen received the second time the opportunity to prepare an international conference on MCDM in Germany; the first opportunity has been the 3rd International Conference on MCDM in Konigswinter, 1979. Quite a time ellapsed since then and therefore it might be interesting to compare some indicators of the development of the International Society on MCDM, which has been founded in Konigswinter. Stanley Zionts has been elected first president and all 44 participants of that Conference became founding members. Today our Society has over 1200 members and its own Journal (MCDM World Scan). In Hagen, 1996, we had 152 participants from 34 countries. It is interesting to mention that also other Groups established their organi zation, like the European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid, the German Working Group on Decision Theory and Applications, the Multi Objective Programming and Goal Programming Group, ESIGMA, and some others. It is also interesting to note that the intersection of members of all these Groups and Societies is not empty and there is quite a cooperation among them.
This title provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. The book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modelling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.
