Beyond the Annual Budget is a comprehensive review of country experience with Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs) worldwide. It looks at countries both with and without MTEFs over the period 1990 to 2008 to obtain results about their impact on fiscal performance.
This project, based on the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) data set, researched how PEFA can be used to shape policy development in public financial management (PFM) and other major relevant policy areas such as anticorruption, revenue mobilization, political economy analysis, and fragile states. The report explores what shapes the PFM system in low- and middle-income countries by examining the relationship between political institutions and the quality of the PFM system. Although the report finds some evidence that multiple political parties in control of the legislature is associated with better PFM performance, the report finds the need to further refine and test the theories on the relationship between political institutions and PFM. The report addresses the question of the outcomes of PFM systems, distinguishing between fragile and nonfragile states. It finds that better PFM performance is associated with more reliable budgets in terms of expenditure composition in fragile states, but not aggregate budget credibility. Moreover, in contrast to existing studies, it finds no evidence that PFM quality matters for deficit and debt ratios, irrespective of whether a country is fragile or not. The report also explores the relationship between perceptions of corruption and PFM performance. It finds strong evidence of a relationship between better PFM performance and improvements in perceptions of corruption. It also finds that PFM reforms associated with better controls have a stronger relationship with improvements in perceptions of corruption compared to PFM reforms associated with more transparency. The last chapter looks at the relationship between PEFA indicators for revenue administration and domestic resource mobilization. It focuses on the credible use of penalties for noncompliance as a proxy for the type of political commitment required to improve tax performance. The analysis shows that countries that credibly enforce penalties for noncompliance collect more taxes on average.
Ghana has been hit hard by the pandemic. The government’s proactive response helped contain the spread of COVID-19, protecting lives and limiting the impact on economic activity. However, partly because of the pandemic, the fiscal position worsened considerably last year, with a sharp increase in public sector debt.
In the concluding decade of the 20th century Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia all underwent democratic or constitutional renewal, raising expectations of increased transparency, accountability and participation in public budgeting, stepping stones towards reduced corruption and improved spending outcomes. This book assesses the progress made against a systematic framework of internationally accepted standards. Each of the country chapters looks at transparency through the eyes of the ordinary citizen and the legislatures and asks what information they would need to assess the link between policy priorities, spending and services. Therefore while the study poses the standard codified questions on the availability, accuracy, timeliness and usefulness of information, it asks them with one yardstick in mind: is the information adequate to enable meaningful participation of citizens. In addition it asks a series of questions about participation itself. The assessments were done by in-country non-governmental organisations over a two-year period and as such offer a rich understanding of the technical and political obstacles to open management of the public purse.These and other cross-country implications of the study are captured in a synthesis chapter.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
In this comprehensive study, 15 African experts describe and analyse the military budgetary processes and degree of parliamentary oversight and control in nine countries of Africa, spanning across all the continent's sub-regions. Each case study addresses a wide range of questions, such as the roles of the ministries of finance, budget offices, audit departments and external actors in the military budgetary processes, the extent of compliance with standard public expenditure management procedures, and how well official military expenditure figures reflect the true economic resources devoted to military activities in these countries.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Welcome to the latest edition of the Exotix Capital Developing Markets Guide, produced by Tellimer – the developing markets experts. This is the sixth edition, the previous one having been published in February 2011 when the concept of investing in frontier economies was beginning to gain traction again after being derailed by the global financial crisis. A lot has happened since then. This guide is written for the serious frontier market investor, policymaker or academic analyst who is looking to maximise returns, improve policymaking or advance research through superior knowledge. We provide analysis and outlooks for 42 frontier economies along with detailed descriptions of their debt histories and restructuring experiences, and with the main investable instruments in the hard currency sovereign and corporate space in each. We aim to give our clients a convenient reference point to check details on loans and illiquid bonds and include as many frontier markets, illiquid instruments, nonperforming or restructured bonds and loans as possible.
Budgeting and budgetary institutions play a critical role in resource allocation, government accountability, and improved fiscal and social outcomes. This volume distills lessons from practices in designing better fiscal institutions, citizen friendly budgets, and open and transparent processes of budget preparation and execution. It also highlights newer concepts of performance budgeting, accrual accounting, activity based costing, and the use of information and communication technology in budgeting. These tools of analysis are supplemented by a review of budgeting in post-conflict countries and two country case studies on the reform of budgeting systems.