Four Centuries of Speculation and Commodity Markets From Tulips to Bitcoins is a fascinating look at big events in commodity and crypto markets from the Dutch Tulip Mania to Bitcoins today. It covers the Silver Thursday and the Hunt Brothers, the doom of Amaranth Advisors and Brian Hunter, Copper and the Congo, Gold, Rare Earths, Energy Metals, and Bitcoins, which rose from below 1,000 USD to above 20,000 USD within a year. These markets are on a crossroad of investing mega trends like demographics, climate change, electrification, and digitalization. By studying and learning from our past, we can make better decisions about the future. As Benjamin Franklin said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”
In the 1630s the Netherlands was gripped by tulipmania: a speculative fever unprecedented in scale and, as popular history would have it, folly. We all know the outline of the story—how otherwise sensible merchants, nobles, and artisans spent all they had (and much that they didn’t) on tulip bulbs. We have heard how these bulbs changed hands hundreds of times in a single day, and how some bulbs, sold and resold for thousands of guilders, never even existed. Tulipmania is seen as an example of the gullibility of crowds and the dangers of financial speculation. But it wasn’t like that. As Anne Goldgar reveals in Tulipmania, not one of these stories is true. Making use of extensive archival research, she lays waste to the legends, revealing that while the 1630s did see a speculative bubble in tulip prices, neither the height of the bubble nor its bursting were anywhere near as dramatic as we tend to think. By clearing away the accumulated myths, Goldgar is able to show us instead the far more interesting reality: the ways in which tulipmania reflected deep anxieties about the transformation of Dutch society in the Golden Age. “Goldgar tells us at the start of her excellent debunking book: ‘Most of what we have heard of [tulipmania] is not true.’. . . She tells a new story.”—Simon Kuper, Financial Times
The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.
This textbook focuses on distributed ledger technology (DLT) and its potential impact on society at large. It aims to offer a detailed and self-contained introduction to the founding principles behind DLT accessible to a well-educated but not necessarily mathematically oriented audience. DLT allows solving many complicated problems arising in economics, banking, and finance, industry, trade, and other fields. However, to reap the ultimate benefits, one has to overcome some of its inherent limitations and use it judiciously. Not surprisingly, amid increasing applications of DLT, misconceptions are formed over its use. The book thoroughly dispels these misconceptions via an impartial assessment of the arguments rooted in scientific reasoning.Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers: Mathematics, Technology, and Economics offers a detailed and self-contained introduction to DLT, blockchains, and cryptocurrencies and seeks to equip the reader with an ability to participate in the crypto economy meaningfully.
The Bullish Case for Bitcoin is an informative and engaging read for the newcomer and long-time Bitcoin enthusiast alike. Boyapati makes a compelling case for Bitcoin via a fast-paced tour of the historical setting of money, the properties of different types of money, and why Bitcoin is the world's best form of money and store of value, potentially set to displace other forms.
OpRisk Awards 2020 Book of the Year Winner! The Authoritative Guide to the Best Practices in Operational Risk Management Operational Risk Management offers a comprehensive guide that contains a review of the most up-to-date and effective operational risk management practices in the financial services industry. The book provides an essential overview of the current methods and best practices applied in financial companies and also contains advanced tools and techniques developed by the most mature firms in the field. The author explores the range of operational risks such as information security, fraud or reputation damage and details how to put in place an effective program based on the four main risk management activities: risk identification, risk assessment, risk mitigation and risk monitoring. The book also examines some specific types of operational risks that rank high on many firms' risk registers. Drawing on the author's extensive experience working with and advising financial companies, Operational Risk Management is written both for those new to the discipline and for experienced operational risk managers who want to strengthen and consolidate their knowledge.
Technology is changing money: it has been transformed from physical objects to intangible information. With the arrival of smart cards, mobile phones and Bitcoin it has become easier than ever to create new forms of money. Crucially, money is also inextricably connected with our identities. Your card or phone is a security device that can identify you – and link information about you to your money. To see where these developments might be taking us, David Birch looks back over the history of money, spanning thousands of years. He sees in the past, both recent and ancient, evidence for several possible futures. Looking further back to a world before cash and central banks, there were multiple ‘currencies’ operating at the level of communities, and the use of barter for transactions. Perhaps technology will take us back to the future, a future that began back in 1971, when money became a claim backed by reputation rather than by physical commodities of any kind. Since then, money has been bits. The author shows that these phenomena are not only possible in the future, but already upon us. We may well want to make transactions in Tesco points, Air Miles, Manchester United pounds, Microsoft dollars, Islamic e-gold or Cornish e-tin. The use of cash is already in decline, and is certain to vanish from polite society. The newest technologies will take money back to its origins: a substitute for memory, a record of mutual debt obligations within multiple overlapping communities. This time though, money will be smart. It will be money that reflects the values of the communities that produced it. Future money will know where it has been, who has been using it and what they have been using it for.
A lively, original, and challenging history of stock market speculation from the 17th century to present day. Is your investment in that new Internet stock a sign of stock market savvy or an act of peculiarly American speculative folly? How has the psychology of investing changed—and not changed—over the last five hundred years? In Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world: from the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, to “stockjobbing” in London's Exchange Alley, to the infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720, which prompted Sir Isaac Newton to comment, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Here are brokers underwriting risks that included highway robbery and the “assurance of female chastity”; credit notes and lottery tickets circulating as money; wise and unwise investors from Alexander Pope and Benjamin Disraeli to Ivan Boesky and Hillary Rodham Clinton. From the Gilded Age to the Roaring Twenties, from the nineteenth century railway mania to the crash of 1929, from junk bonds and the Japanese bubble economy to the day-traders of the Information Era, Devil Take the Hindmost tells a fascinating story of human dreams and folly through the ages.
Identification vs profiling; state welfare vs state surveillance; privacy vs transparency—Aadhaar has bitterly polarized India since its launch in 2010. No other project has captured the imagination of the people—or inspired such awe and anxiety—in recent memory. Aadhaar began life with a singular mandate: offer an identity to those Indian residents who didn’t have any. Along the way, it evolved into the welfare state’s flagship technology and altered forever how government, business, and society interact. The Aadhaar Effect is the story of the visionaries—bureaucrats, technologists, activists—who created or challenged India’s biggest juggernaut. It is equally the story of humans conflicted about complex choices that may make the world a better place. Polestar award winners N.S. Ramnath and Charles Assisi dive deep into the 12-digit number that has touched 1.2 billion lives and counting—and in the bargain, made the world sit up and take note of India’s ambition.
Are we barreling toward another massive global financial catastrophe? How can so many bubbles form all at once? Why are so many “disconnected” markets now capable of collapsing in unison? In this remarkably readable book, award-winning Financial Times columnist John Authers takes on these critical questions and offers deeply sobering answers. Authers reveals how the first truly global super bubble was inflated—and might now be inflating again. He illuminates the multiple roots of repeated financial crises: a massive shift in investing power from individuals to big institutions; the migration of key decisions from banks to capital markets; the wholesale financialization of many asset classes; and fundamental failures of both theory and policy. The Fearful Rise of Markets presents a truly global view, avoiding oversimplifications and ideology as it outlines how we got here and where we stand. Even more valuable, it offers realistic solutions—for decision-makers who want to prevent disaster and investors who want to survive it. The herd grows ever larger—and more dangerous How institutional investing, indexing, and efficient markets theory promote herding Cheap money and irrational exuberance Super fuel for super bubbles Too big to fail: the whole story of moral hazard Banks, hedge funds, and beyond Danger signs of the next bubble Forex, equity, credit, and commodity markets move once more in alignment
