Beyond Mechanical Markets

Beyond Mechanical Markets

Author: Roman Frydman

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-02-07

Total Pages: 304

ISBN-13: 1400838185

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A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.


Book Review

Book Review

Author: Adrian O. Ravier

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 8

ISBN-13:

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Frydman and Goldberg's book lays out important methodological contributions in regard to questioning the hypothesis of rational expectations, constructed on the basis of the writings of Knight, Keynes and Hayek in its opening section. But in the second part, it does not propose a convincing model that would help avoid the formation of new financial bubbles. While accepting to some extent that the government entity has no greater knowledge than economic agents, it ignores the perverse public-sector incentives that James M. Buchanan and the School of Public Choice have explored in recent decades. Furthermore, although repeated reference to Hayek is encouraging, the authors seem to have misunderstood the implications of his most important insight, namely the knowledge problem as it affects public sector decision making. Paradoxically, this oversight leads Frydman and Goldberg themselves to adopt a pretension of knowledge stance despite explicitly criticising traditional models for this very same error.


Against Psychosis

Against Psychosis

Author: Kevin D. Hoover

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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A review essay of Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg's Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State.


Beyond Technical Analysis

Beyond Technical Analysis

Author: Tushar S. Chande

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2001-05-24

Total Pages: 412

ISBN-13: 9780471415671

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Der Klassiker zur technischen Analyse erscheint jetzt in der 2. überarbeiteten, aktualisierten und erweiterten Auflage. Diese Neuauflage bietet eine interessante Mischung aus topaktuellen Techniken und Analyseverfahren, Strategien, zeitlos gültigen Grundsätzen und praktischen Tipps. Sie liefert umfassende Information für die Entwicklung und Implementierung eines eigenen Handelssystems und stellt so eine Verbindung her zwischen Analyse und Ausführung. Neu aufgenommen wurde eine Einführung in die technische Analyse sowie Material zu Einstiegs- und Ausstiegsstrategien, zur Aktienanalyse und zu Chandes neuer bahnbrechender Arbeit über die 'Comfort Zone' für richtiges Risiko- und Geldmanagement. "Beyond Technical Analysis" ist ein praktischer Leitfaden für versierte Händler und Neulinge gleichermaßen. Mit umfangreichem Beispielmaterial zu allen neu eingeführten Techniken, einschließlich Aktienfonds und offenen Investmentfonds!


Mechanical Trading Systems

Mechanical Trading Systems

Author: Richard L. Weissman

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 0471654353

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It also provides a detailed examination of the personality traits common to the three basic types of trader - trend-following (long to intermediate term), mean reversion (intermediate-term), and short-term (swing and day traders) - and illustrates how a strict adherence to specific types of trading systems can foster a psychological flexibility that will allow you to succeed in all kinds of trading environments: countertrending, choppy, or trending."--Jacket.


American Power after the Financial Crisis

American Power after the Financial Crisis

Author: Jonathan Kirshner

Publisher: Cornell University Press

Published: 2014-09-08

Total Pages: 225

ISBN-13: 0801454786

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The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 was both an economic catastrophe and a watershed event in world politics. In American Power after the Financial Crisis, Jonathan Kirshner explains how the crisis altered the international balance of power, affecting the patterns and pulse of world politics. The crisis, Kirshner argues, brought about an end to what he identifies as the "second postwar American order" because it undermined the legitimacy of the economic ideas that underpinned that order—especially those that encouraged and even insisted upon uninhibited financial deregulation. The crisis also accelerated two existing trends: the relative erosion of the power and political influence of the United States and the increased political influence of other states, most notably, but not exclusively, China.Looking ahead, Kirshner anticipates a "New Heterogeneity" in thinking about how best to manage domestic and international money and finance. These divergences—such as varying assessments of and reactions to newly visible vulnerabilities in the American economy and changing attitudes about the long-term appeal of the dollar—will offer a bold challenge to the United States and its essentially unchanged disposition toward financial policy and regulation. This New Heterogeneity will contribute to greater discord among nations about how best to manage the global economy. A provocative look at how the 2007–2008 economic collapse diminished U.S. dominance in world politics, American Power after the Financial Crisis suggests that the most significant and lasting impact of the crisis and the Great Recession will be the inability of the United States to enforce its political and economic priorities on an increasingly recalcitrant world.


How the Markets Really Work

How the Markets Really Work

Author: Joel Kurtzman

Publisher:

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13:

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Several years ago, Joel Kurtzman was covering a meeting between a group of Russian economists and politicians and some of America's best thinkers from business and academia. The Russians were trying to get a handle on exactly who was in charge of the markets and how long the founder of a failed start-up would be sentenced to jail. It's easy to see why Joel's Russian friends were befuddled. But how many of us really understand how the markets work, despite the fact that we live and work in a society that practically worships "the market" as a religion? And when people today are investing more money in mutual funds than in banks, this can be a problem. The markets are big, complex, and completely unforgiving. If you make a major mistake, you risk losing a major amount of money. That's why it's vital to peel back the layers of mystery shrouding the markets. In How the Markets Really Work, Joel Kurtzman provides a lucid explanation of one of the fundamental forces shaping our lives. In clear, accessible language, Kurtzman explains: * How markets, which are so vital to the world's economies, are able to function without any central control * How they create wealth and spread the risk of the world's most uncertain, but potentially lucrative, bets * How markets package and resell debt, connect financial institutions, and set prices * Why volatility has increased and what this means for the boom and bust of investing Kurtzman illuminates the musty corners of the markets, showing how the system is both a single network linked together globally and a highly coordinated dance of free-wheeling, unchoreographed dancers that constitutes a massive social mechanism for layingoff some of the world's riskier bets. He explains the kinds of products that traders trade within the network (stocks, bonds, options, etc); how money circulates within the network; and how banks fit into the global network. This is a book that will help you think strategically about investing. If you understand the markets and the instruments and vehicles that are traded on those markets before thinking about individual stocks and mutual funds, you'll be a smarter, savvier investor. "The Crown Business Briefings series offers an appealing solution to the dilemma of today's business audience: how to keep up with the rapid pace of change in knowledge while leading time-crunched lives. The series features short books on important topics of immediate and measurable benefit to today's broad audience of business readers.


Imperfect Knowledge Economics

Imperfect Knowledge Economics

Author: Roman Frydman

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2023-09-26

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 0691261156

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Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.


Beyond the Core

Beyond the Core

Author: Chris Zook

Publisher: Harvard Business Press

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 1578519519

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This work shows executives how to grow profitably by finding and focusing on their core business. It shows how they can increase the odds of successful expansion once their core business no longer provides sufficient new growth.


Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Author: Harold L. Vogel

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-12-17

Total Pages: 619

ISBN-13: 3030791823

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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.