Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting
Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting

Author: Luis G. Willumsen

Publisher:

Published: 2014-07-26

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 9780992843304

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Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.

Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts

Author: Robert Bain

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 126

ISBN-13: 0956152716

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Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.

Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research
Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research

Author: Gregory D. Erhardt

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9780309481434

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Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.

Modelling Transport
Modelling Transport

Author: Juan de Dios Ortúzar

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2024-04-15

Total Pages: 724

ISBN-13: 1119282357

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MODELLING TRANSPORT Comprehensive Textbook Resource for Understanding Transport Modelling Modelling Transport provides unrivalled depth and breadth of coverage on the topic of transport modelling. Each topic is approached as a modelling exercise with discussion of the roles of theory, data, model specification, estimation, validation, and application. The authors present the state of the art and its practical application in a pedagogic manner, easily understandable to both students and practitioners. An accompanying website hosts a solutions manual. Sample topics and learning resources included in the work are as follows: State-of-the-art developments in the field of transport modelling, including new research and examples Factors to consider for better modelling and forecasting Information and analysis on dynamic assignment and micro-simulation and model design and specification Agent and Activity Based Modelling Modelling new modes and services Graduate students in transportation engineering and planning, transport economics, urban studies, and geography programs along with researchers and practitioners in the transportation and urban planning industry can use Modelling Transport as a comprehensive reference work for a wide array of topics pertaining to this field.

Entrepreneurial Financial Management
Entrepreneurial Financial Management

Author: Jeffrey R Cornwall

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-01-28

Total Pages: 313

ISBN-13: 1317471415

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This new edition of Entrepreneurial Financial Management presents an applied, realistic view of finance for today’s entrepreneurs. The book provides an integrated set of concepts and applications, drawn from entrepreneurship, finance, and accounting, that will prepare aspiring entrepreneurs for the world they are likely to face as they start their new businesses. The book’s contents are designed to follow the life cycle of a new business venture. Topics are covered in the order that entrepreneurs can expect to encounter them as they begin the process of business start-up and move into growing the business. A comprehensive financial spreadsheet template is included with the book. This tool allows for the application of many of the concepts to actual businesses, and can be a valuable supplement to the process of developing a full business plan. The financial spreadsheet templates are available for unlimited free downloads at Professor Cornwall’s blog site: www.drjeffcornwall.com. Key Changes in the Third Edition • The authors have added material on how the book’s financial templates align with business modeling. • The financial templates have been updated and now include more up-to-date assumptions on benefit costs. • There is updated coverage of debt and equity financing due to new regulations and evolving investor expectations. • The bootstrapping chapter has been revised to reflect the explosion of social media and its impact on bootstrap marketing.

Land Use–Transport Interaction Models
Land Use–Transport Interaction Models

Author: Rubén Cordera

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-11-15

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 135136152X

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Transport and the spatial location of population and activities have been important themes of study in engineering, social sciences and urban and regional planning for many decades. However, an integrated approach to the modelling of transport and land use has been rarely made, and common practice has been to model both phenomena independently. This book presents an introduction to the modelling of land use and transport interaction (LUTI), with a theoretical basis and a presentation of the broad state of the art. It also sets out the steps for building an operational LUTI model to provide a concrete application. The authors bring extensive experience in this cross-disciplinary field, primarily for an academic audience and for professionals seeking a thorough introduction.