Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference
Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Author: Tom Britton

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-11-30

Total Pages: 474

ISBN-13: 3030309002

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Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.

Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis
Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis

Author: Hakan Andersson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13: 1461211581

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The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice

Author: W.R. Gilks

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 1995-12-01

Total Pages: 505

ISBN-13: 1482214970

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In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,

Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Processes
Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Processes

Author: Lyle D. Broemeling

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-12-12

Total Pages: 409

ISBN-13: 1315303574

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This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.