Bayesian Estimation and Experimental Design in Linear Regression Models
Bayesian Estimation and Experimental Design in Linear Regression Models

Author: Jürgen Pilz

Publisher:

Published: 1991-07-09

Total Pages: 316

ISBN-13:

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Presents a clear treatment of the design and analysis of linear regression experiments in the presence of prior knowledge about the model parameters. Develops a unified approach to estimation and design; provides a Bayesian alternative to the least squares estimator; and indicates methods for the construction of optimal designs for the Bayes estimator. Material is also applicable to some well-known estimators using prior knowledge that is not available in the form of a prior distribution for the model parameters; such as mixed linear, minimax linear and ridge-type estimators.

Optimal Design of Experiments
Optimal Design of Experiments

Author: Friedrich Pukelsheim

Publisher: SIAM

Published: 2006-04-01

Total Pages: 527

ISBN-13: 0898716047

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Optimal Design of Experiments offers a rare blend of linear algebra, convex analysis, and statistics. The optimal design for statistical experiments is first formulated as a concave matrix optimization problem. Using tools from convex analysis, the problem is solved generally for a wide class of optimality criteria such as D-, A-, or E-optimality. The book then offers a complementary approach that calls for the study of the symmetry properties of the design problem, exploiting such notions as matrix majorization and the Kiefer matrix ordering. The results are illustrated with optimal designs for polynomial fit models, Bayes designs, balanced incomplete block designs, exchangeable designs on the cube, rotatable designs on the sphere, and many other examples.

Optimal Bayesian Experimental Design in the Presence of Model Error
Optimal Bayesian Experimental Design in the Presence of Model Error

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13:

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The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction. We propose an information theoretic framework and algorithms for robust optimal experimental design with simulation-based models, with the goal of maximizing information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters, particularly in situations where experiments are costly. Our framework employs a Bayesian statistical setting, which naturally incorporates heterogeneous sources of information. An objective function reflects expected information gain from proposed experimental designs. Monte Carlo sampling is used to evaluate the expected information gain, and stochastic approximation algorithms make optimization feasible for computationally intensive and high-dimensional problems. A key aspect of our framework is the introduction of model calibration discrepancy terms that are used to "relax" the model so that proposed optimal experiments are more robust to model error or inadequacy. We illustrate the approach via several model problems and misspecification scenarios. In particular, we show how optimal designs are modified by allowing for model error, and we evaluate the performance of various designs by simulating "real-world" data from models not considered explicitly in the optimization objective.

The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments
The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments

Author: Thomas J. Santner

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-01-08

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13: 1493988476

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This book describes methods for designing and analyzing experiments that are conducted using a computer code, a computer experiment, and, when possible, a physical experiment. Computer experiments continue to increase in popularity as surrogates for and adjuncts to physical experiments. Since the publication of the first edition, there have been many methodological advances and software developments to implement these new methodologies. The computer experiments literature has emphasized the construction of algorithms for various data analysis tasks (design construction, prediction, sensitivity analysis, calibration among others), and the development of web-based repositories of designs for immediate application. While it is written at a level that is accessible to readers with Masters-level training in Statistics, the book is written in sufficient detail to be useful for practitioners and researchers. New to this revised and expanded edition: • An expanded presentation of basic material on computer experiments and Gaussian processes with additional simulations and examples • A new comparison of plug-in prediction methodologies for real-valued simulator output • An enlarged discussion of space-filling designs including Latin Hypercube designs (LHDs), near-orthogonal designs, and nonrectangular regions • A chapter length description of process-based designs for optimization, to improve good overall fit, quantile estimation, and Pareto optimization • A new chapter describing graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis tools • Substantial new material on calibration-based prediction and inference for calibration parameters • Lists of software that can be used to fit models discussed in the book to aid practitioners

Model Calibration and Parameter Estimation
Model Calibration and Parameter Estimation

Author: Ne-Zheng Sun

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-07-01

Total Pages: 638

ISBN-13: 1493923234

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This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to these challenging topics such as model calibration, parameter estimation, reliability assessment, and data collection design. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get familiar with advanced methods for modeling complex systems. Algorithms for mathematical tools used in this book, such as numerical optimization, automatic differentiation, adaptive parameterization, hierarchical Bayesian, metamodeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, are covered in details. This book can be used as a reference for graduate and upper level undergraduate students majoring in environmental engineering, hydrology, and geosciences. It also serves as an essential reference book for professionals such as petroleum engineers, mining engineers, chemists, mechanical engineers, biologists, biology and medical engineering, applied mathematicians, and others who perform mathematical modeling.