Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-07

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1513519123

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This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.


Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-08

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1513519867

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This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.


Back to the Future

Back to the Future

Author: Serhan Cevik

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.


Fiscal Sustainability

Fiscal Sustainability

Author: Mr.Evan Tanner

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-04-22

Total Pages: 49

ISBN-13: 1484351495

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This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.


The Return to Fiscal Rules

The Return to Fiscal Rules

Author: Francesca Caselli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-10-11

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13:

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Governments face difficult policy trade-offs with record debt levels, tightening monetary policies, and urgent demands, including food and energy crises, the climate agenda, and population aging. Governments need to communicate fiscal plans to reduce debt sustainability risks and promote consistent macroeconomic policies. Many envisage a return to fiscal rules that had been suspended during the pandemic to strengthen credibility. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and determine how governments can make fiscal policy more agile, including in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility.


Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Author: Craig Burnside

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13:

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Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.


Green Fiscal Reform for a Sustainable Future

Green Fiscal Reform for a Sustainable Future

Author: Natalie P. Stoianoff

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781786431189

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This timely book focuses on achieving a sustainable future through the reform of green fiscal policy. Green fiscal policies help not only provide the needed financing but may also serve the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015. In this volume environmental tax experts review the development of fiscal carbon policy, consider the impact of green taxation on trade and competition, analyze the lessons learned from national experiences with fuel and energy pricing, and evaluate a variety of green economic instruments. A comprehensive range of green economic instruments is evaluated, covering emissions trading schemes, energy tax systems, global natural resource consumption taxes and fiscal intervention. The contributions from leading environmental taxation scholars consider thought-provoking innovations in policy and law to deal with climate change and explore a range of fiscal strategies designed to mitigate the negative and maximise the positive effects of a carbon economy. This is a vital reference work for students and academics in environmental law, economics and sustainability, and will serve as an excellent guide for policy makers and those involved in fiscal reform. Contributors include: C. Brandimarte, J. Bruha, H. Bruhová-Foltýnová, L. del Federico, A. Gerbeti, S. Giorgi, E. Guglyuvatyy, S.-A. Joseph, C. Kettner, D. Kletzan-Slamanig, D. Leary, Y. Motoki, A. Naito, P. Pearce, V. Písa, N.P. Stoianoff, S.L. Tan, X. Wang, S. Wright, J. Wu, Z. Yang


Back to the Future of Socialism

Back to the Future of Socialism

Author: Hain, Peter

Publisher: Policy Press

Published: 2015-01-26

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 1447321707

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What's gone wrong with capitalism and how should governments respond? What does the future hold for the Left in the UK in the face of the austerity straitjacket around our politics and media? Anthony Crosland’s The Future of Socialism (1956) provided a creed for governments of the centre left until the global banking crisis. Now Peter Hain presents an evidence-based case for a radical alternative to the neo-liberal economic agenda. A substantial new Afterword outlines what the Labour Party needs to do following the 2015 UK General Election to win again by returning to its core values of decency, social justice, equality and prosperity for all. A rousing alternative to the neoliberal, right-wing orthodoxy of our era, Hain’s book is now even more essential reading for everyone interested in the future of the left.


Restoring Public Debt Sustainability

Restoring Public Debt Sustainability

Author: George Kopits

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2013-10-17

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 0191665428

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Restoring Public Debt Sustainability: The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions represents the first comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances through real-time monitoring of the soundness of budgetary policymaking. The chapters, authored by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs. Consequently, useful lessons and implications are drawn for the design and practical operation of such institutions. The timeliness of the volume is underscored by the potential role of fiscal watchdogs in containing the public debt crisis that has engulfed a number of countries. Indeed, the recent proliferation of these institutions has been in response to the need for enhancing policy credibility of highly indebted governments in financial markets and, more generally, for strengthening the quality of economic governance. The first part of the book deals with key analytical and institutional issues: the political environment, the scope and limits of these institutions, the delegation of monetary policymaking to an independent body, and the implications of rising public indebtedness. The second part contains case studies of institutions that, for the most part, were born as a result of domestic political developments. The third part presents the experience of institutions whose origins can be traced directly or indirectly to an earlier or a recent financial crisis. The chapters are written from a multidisciplinary - economic, financial, political, legal - perspective, intended for academics, researchers, and practitioners alike.


Evaluating Fiscal Rules for Lesotho

Evaluating Fiscal Rules for Lesotho

Author: Mr. Yibin Mu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-12-06

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13:

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A key challenge for Lesotho is the downward rigidity in public expenditure—which increases when SACU transfers are buoyant but fails to be pared back when they fall. Fiscal rules would be of value in Lesotho to help provide constraints on spending and resist political pressure to overspend, while embedding fiscal responsibility within the country’s macro-fiscal framework and ensuring debt sustainability. This paper evaluates options for fiscal rules for Lesotho, discusses the institutional framework required to help underpin a sound fiscal-rule framework, posits a possible fiscal-rule framework for Lesotho, and offers a roadmap to introduce the framework.